This article analyzes the large-scale circulations producing daily precipitation extremes in the Southwestern Alps and their trends from 1958 to 2017. We consider a high-resolution precipitation data set of 1 × 1 km2 and the weather patterns associated to the precipitation seasonal maxima at each grid point. The high-resolution allows us to analyze in details the atmospheric influences triggering seasonal maxima. Four influences are considered—the Atlantic influence, the Mediterranean influence, the northeast circulation and the Anticyclonic situation. We show that influences on maxima are very well organized in space but their organization depends on the season. Maxima are very mainly triggered by two types of influences in the region—the Atlantic influence and the Mediterranean influence. Trends in weather patterns producing maxima are also organized in space, with opposite trends for the Atlantic and the Mediterranean influences. The Mediterranean influence retreated very significantly over the period in winter and spring, while the Atlantic influence significantly extended further south. In autumn the Mediterranean influence strengthened where it was already dominant.
Extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps are mainly associated with large-scale circulations (LSCs) bringing moist air from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea-two atmospheric influences that are very frequent in the climatology. In this work, we investigate what characterizes the Atlantic/ Mediterranean circulations driving extreme precipitation in the Northern French Alps in comparison to 'random' Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations.We focus on extreme 3-day precipitation over two medium size neighbouring catchments from 1950 to 2017. Atlantic and Mediterranean circulations are identified using an existing weather pattern classification established for Southern France. Every single LSC is characterized using three atmospheric descriptors based on analogy in geopotential shapes at 500 hPa over Western Europe that were introduced in previous works. They are (a) the celerity, characterizing the stationary nature of a geopotential shape, and (b) the singularity and relative singularity, characterizing the resemblance of a geopotential shape to its analogs, in other words the way this geopotential shape is closely reproduced in the climatology. We add to these analogy-based descriptors a new (non-analogy) descriptor accounting for the strength of the low and highpressure systems. We show that Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations driving extreme 3-day precipitation in the Northern French Alps are the Atlantic/Mediterranean circulations featuring the strongest centres of action as well as the most stationary and the most reproducible geopotential shapescharacteristics that are rare for both atmospheric influences. In the Atlantic case, these characteristics appear to be even more pronounced and rare with regard to the whole climatology, pointing LSC as an important driver of extreme precipitation. In the Mediterranean case, these characteristics appear to be more random with regard to the whole climatology, pointing a more balanced contribution between specific LSC and humidity in driving extreme precipitation.
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