Honey bees have garnered much attention in recent years. Concerns about long‐term sustainability of pollinator populations have been coupled with concerns about implications for food supplies. We use a novel formulation of a multiple input, multiple output, two season equilibrium simulation model to explore economic linkages across the markets of buyers and sellers of pollination services and honey. We specify and calibrate in a tractable way the empirical relationships between pollinators and the crops they pollinate, especially almonds. Our model highlights the sequential nature of the pollination season and implication for revenue from pollination and honey production. We demonstrate how shifts in almond supply and demand and the much‐discussed honey bee hive health problems cause price and quantity adjustments in horizontally and vertically related markets and quantify these effects. We show that the economic fortunes of the almond industry, including demand growth, cost concerns, and the potential for new almond varieties that use fewer bees, crucially affect the returns to beekeeping and the number of hives. These drivers of almond economics also have substantial effects on the cost of pollination for crops that are pollinated later.

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1. Pollination is an ecosystem service that directly contributes to agricultural production, and can therefore provide a strong incentive to conserve natural habitats that support pollinator populations. However, we have yet to provide consistent and convincing pollination service valuations to effectively slow the conversion of natural habitats.2. We use coffee in Kodagu, India, to illustrate the uncertainties involved in estimating costs and benefits of pollination services. First, we fully account for the benefits obtained by coffee agroforests that are attributable to pollination from wild bees nesting in forest habitats. Second, we compare these benefits to the opportunity cost of conserving forest habitats and forgoing conversion to coffee production. Throughout, we systematically quantify the uncertainties in our accounting exercise and identify the parameters that contribute most to uncertainty in pollination service valuation.3. We find the value of pollination services provided by one hectare of forest to be 25% lower than the profits obtained from converting that same surface to coffee production using average values for all parameters. However, our results show this value is not robust to moderate uncertainty in parameter values, particularly that driven by variability in pollinator density. Synthesis and applications.Our findings emphasize the need to develop robust estimates of both value and opportunity costs of pollination services that take into account landscape and management variables. Our analysis contributes to strengthening pollination service arguments used to help stakeholders make informed decisions on land use and conservation practices. K E Y W O R D S coffee, crop pollination, ecosystem services, forest, opportunity cost, sensitivity analysis, valuation | 1551 Journal of Applied Ecology MAGRACH et Al.