T he theory of real options offers an approach for the valuation of investments in real assets, based on the methodology developed for financial options. This approach is especially appropriate in the context of strategic decision making under conditions of uncertainty. This is the case for the valuation of highway concessions, where real options arise from certain clauses of the contracts, for example, a minimum traffic guarantee. The possible exercise of these kinds of rights means an added value for the project that cannot be easily captured using traditional procedures for investment valuation. In this paper, we develop a methodology to value these clauses of highway concessions and, for that purpose, we consider the traffic on the highway as the underlying asset in an option contract, taking into account that, when a nonfinancial asset is used, some adjustments have to be made to the options approach. This methodology is applied to the case of an already operating highway concession, using real data, and the authors obtain an estimate of the value of a minimum traffic guarantee, which depends on several parameters that are analyzed. The authors conclude that this methodology is an appropriate tool for the valuation of highway concessions that have operational flexibility.

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According to the Spanish General Traffic Accident Directorate, in 2017 a total of 351 pedestrians were killed, and 14,322 pedestrians were injured in motor vehicle crashes in Spain. However, very few studies have been conducted in order to analyse the main factors that contribute to pedestrian injury severity. This study analyses the accidents that involve a single vehicle and a single pedestrian on Spanish crosstown roads from 2006 to 2016 (1535 crashes). The factors that explain these accidents include infractions committed by the pedestrian and the driver, crash profiles, and infrastructure characteristics. As a preliminary tool for the segmentation of 1535 pedestrian crashes, a k-means cluster analysis was applied. In addition, multinomial logit (MNL) models were used for analysing crash data, where possible outcomes were fatalities and severe and minor injured pedestrians. According to the results of these models, the risk factors associated with pedestrian injury severity are as follows: visibility restricted by weather conditions or glare, infractions committed by the pedestrian (such as not using crossings, crossing unlawfully, or walking on the road), infractions committed by the driver (such as distracted driving and not respecting a light or a crossing), and finally, speed infractions committed by drivers (such as inadequate speed). This study proposes the specific safety countermeasures that in turn will improve overall road safety in this particular type of road.

In civil engineering and construction, in the selection of the most adequate and sustainable alternative, all of the alternatives and selection criteria, such as the requirements of the construction process (which are often overlooked) and the preferences of designers, clients, or contractors, are not always taken into account. The purpose of this article is to suggest a methodology that may allow studying all of the possible alternatives to find the most ideal solution among all of the existing possibilities for the selection of retaining walls to be built in infrastructures in different environments. For this purpose, all typologies of retaining walls and selection criteria (external requirements, construction requirements, characteristics of the natural land and economic criteria) are first identified. Subsequently, a simple methodological method is proposed, allowing the relative importance of each criterion to be established and allowing us to select the most suitable solution for each situation by successively applying different multicriteria decision-making methods. Finally, the methodology developed is applied to two projects in different locations with different constraints. The results obtained provide a set of compromise solutions that remain as best-rank alternatives when the weights of the criteria change. Therefore, the methodology developed can be applied to the selection of typologies of other structures in future projects.

As long as motorway concessions are subject to the variability of traffic demand, it is necessary to apply valuation methods that can take into account that uncertainty. In the past, many concession projects have faced an early termination of the contract due to lower traffic than expected. These insolvency situations raise the issue of the compensation to the concessionaire when the contract is prematurely terminated. A methodology based on the real-options approach has been developed in this paper to assess insolvency situations in motorway concessions. Under this approach, the mechanism of compensation can be modeled as an abandonment option, granted by the public administration to the concessionaire, in which the value of the option will depend on the evolution of traffic. This methodology is then applied to the case of a real concession in Spain. The results show a significant value of the abandonment option, which represents an implicit aid from the public administration to the concession. In this way, the methodology presented in this paper can contribute to gaining a better understanding of the risks of motorway concessions and enhancing the transparency in concession contracts.