Nowadays, the virtual prototyping method is widely used for industrial applications and can lead to a powerful tool for musical instruments making and conservation. Nevertheless, physics-based models of musical instruments are barely developed for this purpose and the confrontation between model predictions and experiments have been the focus of very few researches. The objective of this paper is to highlight the predictive capability of physics-based models in dynamic domain, even in presence of variable by nature material and climatic conditions. For this purpose, a finite element model of the soundboard of a Spanish guitar is developed for model validation purposes. The simulated modal bases are compared with experimental ones from a previous study. Screening and stochastic analyses are performed to rank which are, among material and climatic parameters, the most influential ones on the dynamics of guitar soundboard. Moreover, uncertainties are taken into account to evaluate the dispersion of the response for a given design, and simulations are validated facing experimental data. It is shown that specific elastic parameters of the wood (in longitudinal and radial directions and longitudinal-radial plane) of the top plate are mainly

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