The relationship of relapses to long-term disability in multiple sclerosis is uncertain. Relapse reduction is a common therapeutic target but clinical trials have shown dissociation between relapse suppression and disability accumulation. We investigated relationships between relapses and disability progression for outcomes of requiring assistance to walk, being bedridden and dying from multiple sclerosis [Disability Status Scale 6, 8, 10] by analysing 28 000 patient-years of evolution in 806-bout onset patients from the London Ontario natural history cohort. Having previously shown no effect of relapse frequency among progressive multiple sclerosis subtypes, here we examined these measures in the pre-progressive or relapsing–remitting phase. Survival was compared among groups stratified by (i) early relapses—number of attacks during the first 2 years of multiple sclerosis; (ii) length of first inter-attack interval; (iii) interval between onset and Disability Status Scale 3 (moderate disability); (iv) number of attacks from the third year of disease up to onset of progression; and (v) during the entire relapsing–remitting phase. Early clinical features can predict hard disability outcomes. Frequent relapses in the first 2 years and shorter first inter-attack intervals predicted shorter times to reach hard disability endpoints. Attack frequencies, in the first 2 years, of 1 versus ≥3, gave differences of 7.6, 12.8 and 20.3 years in times from disease onset to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 and 10, respectively. Time to Disability Status Scale 3 highly and independently predicted time to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 and 10. In contrast, neither total number of relapsing–remitting phase attacks nor of relapses experienced during the relapsing–remitting phase after the second year up to onset of progression showed a deleterious effect on times from disease onset, from progression onset and from Disability Status Scale 3 to these hard endpoints. The failure of a regulatory mechanism tied to neurodegeneration is suggested. Relapse frequency beyond Year 2 does not appear to predict the key outcome of secondary progression or times to Disability Status Scale 6, 8 or 10, highlighting two distinct disease phases related to late outcome. These appear to be separated by a watershed within the relapsing–remitting phase, just a few years after clinical onset. Higher early relapse frequencies and shorter first inter-attack intervals herald more rapid deterioration via interaction with the neurodegeneration characterizing secondary progression. They increase the probability of its occurrence, its latency and influence—to a lesser degree—its slope. The prevention or delay of the progressive phase of the disease is implicated as a key therapeutic target in relapsing–remitting patients.

Low-frequency median nerve stimulation, paired with suprathreshold transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) over the optimal site for activation of the abductor pollicis brevis (APB) muscle induces a long-lasting increase in the excitability of corticospinal output neurons, if median nerve stimulation is given 25 ms before TMS. Here we employed this protocol of stimulation to assess associative plasticity of the primary motor hand area in 10 patients with writer's cramp and 10 age-matched controls. Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were recorded from right APB muscle and right first dorsal interosseus (FDI) muscle. Resting and active motor threshold, mean MEP amplitude at rest, short-latency intracortical inhibition (SICI) at an interstimulus interval of 2 ms and the duration of the cortical silent period (CSP) were assessed immediately before and after associative stimulation. In both groups, associative stimulation led to an increase in resting MEP amplitudes which was more pronounced in the right APB muscle. Compared with healthy controls, stimulation-induced facilitation of MEP amplitudes was stronger in patients with writer's cramp. In addition, only patients showed a slight decrease of resting and active motor thresholds after conditioning stimulation. In both groups, associative stimulation induced a prolongation of CSP in the APB and FDI muscles, which was significant only in the APB muscle in healthy controls. Associative stimulation had no effects on SICI in patients and healthy controls. Taken together, in patients with writer's cramp, the motor system exhibited an abnormal increase in corticospinal excitability and an attenuated reinforcement of intracortical inhibitory circuits that generate the CSP in response to associative stimulation. This altered pattern of sensorimotor plasticity may favour maladaptive plasticity during repetitive skilled hand movements and, thus, may be of relevance for the pathophysiology of writer's cramp and other task-specific dystonias.

Development of SP is the dominant determinant of long-term prognosis, independent of disease duration and early relapse frequency. Age independently affects disability development primarily by changing probability and latency of SP onset, with little effect on the progressive course.

Objectives To assess factors affecting the rate of conversion to secondary progressive (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS) and its subsequent evolution. Methods Among 806 patients with relapsing remitting (RR) onset MS from the London Ontario database, we used Kaplan-Meier, Cox regression and multiple logistic regression analyses to investigate the effect of baseline clinical and demographic features on (1) the probability of, and the time to, SP disease, (2) the time to bedbound status (Disability Status Scale (DSS 8)) from onset of progression. Results The risk of entering the SP phase increased proportionally with disease duration (OR=1.07 for each additional year; p<0.001). Shorter latency to SP was associated with shorter times to severe disability. The same association was found even when patients were grouped by number of total relapses before progression. However, the evolution of the SP phase was not influenced by the duration of the RR phase. Male sex (HR=1.41; p<0.001), older age at onset (age ≤20 and 21-30 vs >30 HR=0.52 ( p<0.001), 0.65 ( p<0.001), respectively) and high early relapse frequency (1-2 attacks vs ≥3 HR=0.63 ( p<0.001), 0.75 ( p=0.04), respectively) predicted significantly higher risk of SP MS and shorter latency to progression. Times to DSS 8 from onset of progression were significantly shorter among those with high early relapse frequency (≥3 attacks), and among those presenting with cerebellar and brainstem symptoms. Conclusions The onset of SP MS is the dominant determinant of long-term prognosis, and its prevention is the most important target measure for treatment. Baseline clinical features of early relapse frequency and age at onset can be used to select groups at higher risk of developing severe disability based on the probability of their disease becoming progressive within a defined time period.

Data on the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in France are scarce. National and regional updated estimates are needed to better plan health policies. In this nationwide study, we provided estimates of the prevalence of MS in France in 2012 and mortality rate in 2013. MS cases were identified in the French national health insurance database (SNIIRAM-PMSI) using reimbursement data for disease-modifying treatment, long-term disease status for MS, disability pension for MS, and hospitalisa-tion for MS (MS ICD-10 code: G35). We identified 99,123 MS cases, corresponding to an overall crude prevalence rate of 151.2 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% confidence interval (CI) 150.3-152.2]: 210.0 per 100,000 in women (95% CI 208.4-211.5) and 88.7 per 100,000 in men (95% CI 87.6-89.7). The overall prevalence rate was 155.6 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 154.7-156.6) after standardization on the 2013-European population. We observed a prevalence gradient with a higher prevalence (190-200 per 100,000) in NorthEastern France and a lower prevalence in Southern and Western France (126-140). The crude mortality rate in 2013 was 13.7 per 1,000 MS cases (11.4 in women and 20.3 in men). The standardized mortality ratio was 2.56 (95% CI 2.41-2.72). Our results revise upwards the estimation of MS prevalence in France and confirm the excess mortality of MS patients compared to the general population.