The paper analyses the notion of an economy’s Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio and proceeds to provide estimates of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio for the Moldovan economy utilising National Accounts data. The purpose of the study is to calculate estimates of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio for the Moldovan economy’s transition period to date, utilise the derived estimates to analyse aspects of economic growth in Moldova over its transition period and use the average value of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio over the recent period for simulation and forecasting purposes. On the whole the reported empirical estimates of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio for the Moldovan economy lie within the range of values reported in the economic literature. Furthermore, the evolution of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio in the first few years of sustainable growth in Moldova reflects the wide availability of unemployed or underemployed resources in the economy at the time thus allowing the achievement significant economic growth which was associated with low values of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio over the period. The paper proceeds to utilise the recent Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio estimates for the Moldovan economy over the period 2015 to 2019 inclusive to calculate an average estimate of the Incremental Capital‐Output Ratio and use this average estimate to generate estimates of the Gross Fixed Capital Formation ratios as a share of GDP required to reach a number of indicative growth paths in the medium to long term. It is notable that the growth path which is attainable given current conditions in the economy is close to the latest medium term forecasts by International Financial Institutions and the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure. The paper concludes by discussing the design of economic policy and development planning in Moldova and suggesting areas for further work.

The paper discusses the properties of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and proceeds to estimate a model for the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in Moldova from January 2013 to October 2021. The aim of the paper is to develop a model relying exclusively upon the historical evolution of inflation as an additional instrument for forecasting purposes. The estimated model explains close to 97 % of the monthly variation of the inflation rate over the model’s estimation period and is used to generate forecasts of the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in short to medium term. The ARIMA-generated forecasts suggest that the acceleration of inflation which characterised the monthly evolution of the annual inflation rate in 2021 up to October 2021 will continue in the next four months, with the inflation rate peaking at 12 % in February 2022 and slowly decelerating from that point onwards towards the 5 % inflation target in the longer term. The paper concludes by suggesting areas for further work and briefly discussing the inflation outlook for the Moldovan economy, considering current international and domestic economic conditions. Natural areas for further work would be to regularly update the econometric estimates and forecasts of the estimated ARIMA model as the economy evolves through time. With regard to the inflation outlook, the analysis contained in the concluding section of the paper suggests that the future evolution of inflation is likely to be more pessimistic than the ARIMA-based generated forecast.