So far, the formation of a monetary union in the East African Community (EAC) has remained elusive. The EAC partner states therefore established set targets for macroeconomic convergence, with an aim to eliminate exchange rate variability within the bloc. Where countries are able to eliminate or reduce exchange rate adjustments to maintain external balance, the costs of a monetary union reduces, thus the more suitable it is for such a region to form a monetary union. Major macroeconomic variables need to be harmonized before establishing a monetary union such as real GDP, budget deficit/GDP, national savings, and inflation rate. However, empirical studies undertaken indicate that the rate of convergence of the member states economies to the set targets has been very slow, resulting into high exchange rate variability within the region. It is against this background that this study was carried out to determine the effect of convergence in real GDP growth rate on exchange rate volatility, of five EAC countries: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda. The bloc was chosen for the study since it has scheduled to establish its common currency earlier than other African economic blocs, and thus its success will be a lesson to them. A panel data analysis was used over the period of 2000 to 2016. Sigma (standard deviation) was used in the study to establish convergence of variables. Levin et al. 2002) test for panel unit root was employed to test for data stationarity and it was found that real exchange rate and real GDP growth rate were stationary. Pedroni residual-based cointegration test was carried out to test for the long-run relationship between variables in the model and it was established that there exist a long-run relationship between exchange rate and explanatory variable. The study results showed that the entire explanatory variable had a significant and a negative effect on exchange rate volatility. This means that convergence in real GDP growth rate among the EAC countries reduces exchange rate variability within the region. Thus, the policy makers should ensure that the EAC countries harmonize their economies, which will help greatly to eliminate exchange rate adjustments within the region, in readiness for a stable and sustainable monetary union.
This study empirically examined the effect of research and development on agricultural sector growth in East African Community from the year 2000-2014. According to the endogenous growth theory, research and development leads to increase in the stock of knowledge which in turn has got spill over effects hence leads to economic growth. However, little is known on the effect of R&D on the agricultural sector in the EAC hence the study sought to bridge this knowledge gap. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of agricultural research and development on agricultural sector growth. Panel data analysis was used with stationarity test conducted using Levin-Lin-Chu panel unit root test. Stationarity test showed that some variables were stationary at level while others were stationary after first differencing. Random effects regression results showed that explanatory variables had a positive and significant relationship with the dependent variable and the recommendations are: That R&D to be allocated more funds; more research scientists and agricultural labourers to be employed, trained and motivated through better remuneration and good work environment; R&D based knowledge to be disseminated to the public through publications; firms to train agricultural labourers on how new technologies are being used and also to allocate them duties and responsibilities that match their skills and that agricultural capital costs be subsidised.
Tremendous financial changes have been witnessed in the East African Community’s (EAC’s) macroeconomic landscape over the past few years. These changes can shift various parameters of the money demand model. Many previous empirical studies examined the effect of scale and opportunity cost of holding money variables on money demand. However, most of them left out financial innovation which is one of the key factors influencing money demand. Additionally, they are just country specific studies and used time series data analysis technique. It is in this backdrop that a cross-country case study that investigates how financial innovation affects money demand function was carried out using the recent data and a different analysis technique which is panel data analysis. The objective of the study was to examine the effect of mobile financial innovation on money demand in the EAC. The study used secondary data for the period 2007 to 2020 and this data was obtained from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Both descriptive and inferential analyses were carried out. Levin-Lin-Chu test for panel unit root was done and all the study variables were found to be stationary at level. The results of balanced panel fixed effects regression analysis indicated that mobile money, ATMs, and real GDP were affecting money demand positively and their effects were also statistically significant. However, interest rate affected money demand negatively. Mobile money and ATMs were proxies for financial innovation whereas real GDP and interest rates were control variables. Therefore, it was observed that financial innovation has had a positive effect on money demand in the EAC. The findings of this study might be of great importance to monetary authorities and policy makers in the EAC. Future research studies can expand the period of study similar to this one and also increase the number of countries involved.
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