After eight months of the pandemic declaration, COVID-19 has not been globally controlled. Several efforts to control SARS-CoV-2 dissemination are still running including vaccines and drug treatments. The effectiveness of these procedures depends, in part, that the regions to which these treatments are directed do not vary considerably. Although, it is known that the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 is relatively low it is necessary to monitor the adaptation and evolution of the virus in the different stages of the pandemic. Thus, identification, analysis of the dynamics, and possible functional and structural implication of mutations are relevant. Here, we first estimate the number of COVID-19 cases with a virus with a specific mutation and then calculate its global relative frequency (NRFp). Using this approach in a dataset of 100 924 genomes from GISAID, we identified 41 mutations to be present in viruses in an estimated number of 750 000 global COVID-19 cases (0.03 NRFp). We classified these mutations into three groups: high-frequent, low-frequent non-synonymous, and low-frequent synonymous. Analysis of the dynamics of these mutations by month and continent showed that high-frequent mutations appeared early in the pandemic, all are present in all continents and some of them are almost fixed in the global population. On the other hand, low-frequent mutations (non-synonymous and synonymous) appear late in the pandemic and seems to be at least partially continent-specific. This could be due to that high-frequent mutation appeared early when lockdown policies had not yet been applied and low-frequent mutations appeared after lockdown policies. Thus, preventing global dissemination of them. Finally, we present a brief structural and functional review of the analyzed ORFs and the possible implications of the 25 identified non-synonymous mutations.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a contagious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This disease has spread globally, causing more than 161.5 million cases and 3.3 million deaths. Keeping on the identification, surveillance and the study of the temporal dynamics of mutations with significant representation is central to understand the adaptation of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, how lockdown policies influence the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutations is poorly understood. Here, using 1 058 020 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and COVID-19 cases from 714 country-month combinations representing 98 countries, we performed a normalization by COVID-19 cases calculation of relative frequency of SARS-CoV-2 mutations. We found 115 mutations estimated to be present in more than 3 % of global COVID-19 cases and determined three types of mutation dynamics: High-Frequency, Medium-Frequency, and Low-Frequency. Classification of mutations based on temporal dynamics helps to study viral adaptation and can be used to evaluate the effects of human behaviors in the pandemic. For instance, we report a negative and positive correlation of the frequency change of High-Frequency mutations with the level of international movement controls and the number of flight departures, respectively.
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