Keywords:
Bio-economic model Integrated assessment Environmental policy Market liberalizationThe disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of this article is to present a bio-economic farm model that is generic and re-usable for different bio-physical and socio-economic contexts, facilitating the linking of micro and macro analysis or to provide detailed analysis of farming systems in a specific región. Model use is illustrated in this paper with an analysis of the impaets of the CAP reform of 2003 for arable and livestock farms in a context of market liberalization. Results from the application of the model to representative farms in Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France) shows that CAP reform 2003 under market liberalization will cause substantial substitution of root crops and durum wheat by vegetables and oilseed crops. Much of the set-aside área will be put into production intensifying the existing farming systems. Abolishment of the milk quota system will cause an increase of the average herd size. The average total gross margin of farm types in Flevoland decreases while the average total gross margin of farms in Midi-Pyrenees increases. The results show that the model can simúlate arable and livestock farm types of two regions different from a biophysical and socio-economic point of view and it can deal with a variety of policy instruments. The examples show that the model can be (re-)used as a basis for future research and as a comprehensive tool for future policy analysis.
Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semiquantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.
Designing Green Supply Chains (GSCs) requires complex decisionsupport models that can deal with multiple dimensions of sustainability while taking into account specific characteristics of products and their supply chain. Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches can be used to quantify trade-offs between economic, social, and environmental criteria i.e. to identify green production options. The aim of this paper is to review the use of MCDM approaches for designing efficient and effective GSCs. We develop a conceptual framework to find relevant publications and to categorise papers with respect to decision problems, indicators, and MCDM approaches. The analysis shows that (1) the use of MCDM approaches for designing GSCs is a rather new but emerging research field, (2) most of the publications focus on production and distribution problems, and there are only a few inventory models with environmental considerations, (3) the majority of papers assume all data to be deterministic, (4) little attention has been given to minimisation of waste, (5) numerous indicators are used to account for eco-efficiency, indicating the lack of standards. This study, therefore, identifies the need for
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