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This study provides an attempt to analyze the pre-eruptive seismicity events for volcano eruption forecasting. After more than 50 years of slumber, Agung volcano on Bali Island erupted explosively, starting on November 21, 2017. The eruption was preceded by almost 2 months of significant increase of recorded seismicity, herein defined as “seismic crisis.” Our study provides the first analysis of VT events using data from eight local seismic stations deployed by the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation of Indonesia (CVGHM) to monitor the Agung Volcano activity. In total, 2,726 Volcano-Tectonic (VT) events, with 13,023 P waves and 11,823 S wave phases, were successfully identified between October 18 and November 30, 2017. We increased the accuracy of the hypocenter locations of these VT events using a double-difference (DD) relative relocation and a new velocity model appropriate to the subsurface geological conditions of Agung volcano. We found two types of seismicity during the recording period that represent the VT events relating to fracture network reactivation due to stress changes (during the seismic crisis) and magma intrusion (after the seismic crisis). The characteristics of each event type are discussed in terms of Vp/Vs values, phase delay times, seismic cluster shapes, and waveform similarity. We interpret that the upward migrating magma reached a barrier (probably a stiff layer) which prohibited further ascent. Consequently, magma pressurized the zone above the magma chamber and beneath the barrier, reactivated the fracture zone between Agung and Batur volcanoes, and caused the seismic crisis since September 2017. In early November 2017, the barrier was finally intruded, and magma and seismicity propagated toward the Agung summit. This reconstruction provides a better depth constraint as to the previous conceptual models and explains the long delay (∼10 weeks) between the onset of the seismic crisis and the eruption. The distinction between the fracture reactivation and magma intrusion VT events observed in this study is significant for eruption forecasting and understanding the subsurface structure of the magmatic system. Based on the results obtained in this study, we emphasize the importance of prompt analysis (location and basic seismic characteristics) of the seismic crisis preceding the Agung eruption.

Recent borehole seismic deployments conducted along the Baribis Fault in northwestern Java reveal that it may be active. In this study, we exploit these data to locate proximal earthquakes using a relative relocation technique, estimate their moment magnitudes using a spectral fitting method and compute their focal mechanisms via waveform inversion. We observe that seismicity in the eastern part of the fault is significantly higher than in the west, where a previous GPS study of the region south of Jakarta demonstrated the existence of high compression rates. These observations imply that the western Baribis Fault is locked, and that neighbouring areas, including southern Jakarta and its surroundings, may be highly vulnerable to future sizeable earthquakes when accumulated elastic strain energy is eventually released during fault rupture. Significantly, the current generation of Indonesia’s national hazard maps have not considered seismicity along the Baribis Fault. Our new results therefore call for an urgent reappraisal of the seismic hazard in northwestern Java that carefully takes into account the Baribis Fault and its earthquake potential, particularly in light of its proximity to Jakarta, a megacity that lies at the heart of one of the most densely populated islands in the world.

This article presents earthquake catalogs of the 2019 Ambon aftershocks compiled from regional the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics of Indonesia (BMKG) and local seismic networks deployed in [1] . The final earthquake catalogs are comprised of 1009 and 1764 aftershocks compiled from regional [2] and local network [1] , respectively, which span the period of October 18th to December 15th, 2019. The range of their spatial region is −3.70 o to −3.30 o on the latitude and 128.15 – 128.60 o on the longitude. Additionally, focal mechanism solutions of the main Mw 6.5 and its biggest triggered aftershock Mw 5.2 events were acquired. Such datasets could provide a basis for further seismology analysis, including seismic tomography, source mechanism analysis, and further seismic hazard analysis in the Ambon and Seram islands. This paper and its dataset are a companion for a published article in the Tectonophysics under the title “Source Mechanism and Triggered Large Aftershocks of the Mw 6.5 Ambon, Indonesia Earthquake” [1] .

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