The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (M w 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, offshore of Sumatra, Indonesia, generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives. The rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 September 2007 M w 8.5 and 7.9 underthrusting earthquakes. High-rate (1 s sampling) GPS instruments of the Sumatra GPS Array network deployed on the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra mainland recorded time-varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km. Azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high-resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process. Finite-fault rupture models, obtained by joint inversion of the high-rate (hr)-GPS time series and numerous teleseismic broadband P and S wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings, indicate rupture propagation~50 km up dip and~100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter, with a rupture velocity of~1.8 km/s. Subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth~80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from~5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for~100 km along strike, with a localized region having >15 m of slip. The seismic moment is 7.2 × 10 20 N m. The rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes.
Relocation of earthquakes recorded by the agency for meteorology, climatology and geophysics (BMKG) in Indonesia and inversions of global positioning system (GPS) data reveal clear seismic gaps to the south of the island of Java. These gaps may be related to potential sources of future megathrust earthquakes in the region. To assess the expected inundation hazard, tsunami modeling was conducted based on several scenarios involving large tsunamigenic earthquakes generated by ruptures along segments of the megathrust south of Java. The worst-case scenario, in which the two megathrust segments spanning Java rupture simultaneously, shows that tsunami heights can reach ~ 20 m and ~ 12 m on the south coast of West and East Java, respectively, with an average maximum height of 4.5 m along the entire south coast of Java. These results support recent calls for a strengthening of the existing Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS), especially in Java, the most densely populated island in Indonesia.
Sulawesi tsunami has been a puzzle because extreme deadly tsunami waves were generated following an Mw 7.5 strike-slip earthquake, while such earthquakes are not usually considered to produce large tsunamis. Here, we obtained, processed and analyzed two sea level records of the tsunami in the near-field (Pantoloan located inside the Palu Bay) and far-field (Mamuju located outside the Palu Bay) and conducted numerical simulations to shed light on the tsunami source. The two tide gauges recorded maximum tsunami trough-to-crest heights of 380 and 24 cm, respectively, with respective dominating wave periods of 3.6-4.4 and 10 min, and respective high-energy wave duration of 5.5 and [14 h. The two observed waveforms were significantly different with wave amplitude and period ratios of *16 and *3, respectively. We infer tsunamigenic source dimensions of 3.4-4.1 km and 32.5 km, for inside and outside of the Palu Bay, respectively. Our numerical simulations fairly well reproduced both tsunami observations in Pantoloan and Mamuju; except for the arrival time in Mamuju. However, it was incapable of reproducing the maximum reported coastal amplitudes of 6-11 m. It is possible that these two sources are different parts of the same tectonic source. A bay oscillation mode of *85 min was revealed for the Palu Bay through numerical modeling. Actual sea surface disturbances and landslide-generated waves were captured by two video recordings from inside the Palu Bay shortly after the earthquake. It is possible that a large submarine landslide contributed to and intensified the Sulawesi tsunami. We identify the southern part of the Palu Bay, around the latitude of-0.82 o S, as the most likely location of a potential landslide based on our backward tsunami ray tracing analysis. However, marine geological data from the Palu Bay are required to confirm such hypothesis.
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