Abstract. The Netherlands is updating its flood protection, whilst fully taking into account climate change and socioeconomic development. This WUDQVODWHV LQ µDQWLFLSDWRU\ VWDQGDUGV ¶ ZKLFK QHHG WR EH PHW LQ DQG ZKLFK DSSO\ IRU the then foreseen climate and economy. Whilst the government maintains to have adopted a policy of adaptive planning and management, the new standards are thus based on one IXWXUH VLWXDWLRQ ZKLFK TXDOLILHV DV D µhigh end VFHQDULR ¶ IURP D IORRG ULVN PDQDJHPHQW SHUVSHFWLYH The consequences of adopting these new standards are now becoming clear. It is expected that many hundreds of kilometres of primary flood defences need to be reinforced and/or raised, at an estimated investment of about 9-14 billion euros. The many uncertainties about actual future development, however, complicate the decision making about the implementation of individual reinforcement projects: should one aim at immediately meeting the new standard or gradually improve and grow towards it? In this paper we discuss the uncertain decision making context, show that lawfulness (working according to procedures, rules and regulations) and expediency (towards a purpose) may jeopardize the good intentions of adaptive management, and argue that optimization may not provide the most useful answer to this decision making problem.
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