As the solar energy technology has been more competitive recently, it is common to see studies which examined how solar photovoltaic can technically emerge in the energy system in Indonesia. However, less research is conducted to study how the emergence of solar photovoltaic might impact different stakeholders in the electricity market in Indonesia. The increase of solar photovoltaic deployment will create winners and losers among the main stakeholders which are: the consumers, the national electricity company (PLN), independent power producers (IPP), and the Government of Indonesia. This paper asserts that consumers in Indonesia who do not have access to the grid will get benefits from the solar photovoltaic competitive costs. The consumers who have access to grid, however, will be indifferent in their position. In the longer term, these consumers will face the death spiral unless PLN, forced by the regulation, takes the loss. PLN will face bankruptcy due to the loss unless they invest in the distributed energy resources infrastructure. IPP will not gain in position due to unsupportive government regulations. Moreover, solar photovoltaic IPP will be vulnerable due to the policies that support imbalanced competition among renewable energies. On the other hand, the government will get some advantages that support their political agenda during the proliferation of solar photovoltaic.

The primary focus of this paper is to provide an energy forecast for electricity generation in Indonesia. The modelling method with Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software is implemented with the interpolation with growth, linear forecast, exponential forecast, and logistic forecast upon two projection scenarios of business as usual (BAU) and with current government policy (CGP). Input data used are including the past data of electricity generation from 2005 to 2017, the target electricity generation from 2019 to 2028 and its share based on Indonesia’s policies and planning on electricity generation, and other electricity generation highlights based on the defining policy. The result analysis for the BAU data projects the total energy generation of 1,306.17 Terawatt-hour (TWh), comprising of 47.7% coal, 43.4% gas, 3.51% hydro, 2.32% oil, and 1.85% geothermal with the remaining percentage from other renewable energy resources. On the second scenarios with current government policy, the model predicts electricity generation to be 1,404 TWh, consisting of 54.4% coal, 22% gas, 10.93% hydro, 0.4% oil, 9.63% geothermal and the rest percentage from other renewable energy resources. The gap in the two results in the renewable energy mix shows the actual challenge that will require the government to take significant action to realize the plan.

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