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[1] We constructed a model-based evaluation of current and future effects of atmospheric S and N deposition on aquatic resources in the eight-state southern Appalachian Mountains region. Modeling was conducted with the MAGIC model for about 40 to 50 sites within each of three physiographic provinces, stratified by stream water acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) class. Simulations were based on assumed constant future atmospheric deposition at 1995 levels and on three regional strategies of emissions controls provided by the Southern Appalachian Mountains Initiative (SAMI), based on the Urban to Regional Multiscale One-Atmosphere model. The National Stream Survey statistical frame was used to estimate the number and percentage of stream reaches in the region that were projected to change their chemistry in response to the emissions control strategies. There was a small decline in the estimated length of projected acidic (ANC 0) streams in 2040 from the least to the most restrictive emissions control strategy, but there was little difference in projected stream length in the other ANC classes as a consequence of adopting one or another strategy. However, projections of continued future acidification were substantially larger under a scenario in which S and N deposition were held constant into the future at 1995 levels. Model results suggested that the percent of potentially acid-sensitive streams having chemistry that is chronically unsuitable for brook trout would increase slightly between 1995 and 2040 under all except the most restrictive emissions control strategy.

Streamwater composition data obtained through periodic sampling of streams that support brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in the mountains of western Virginia were examined for evidence of recovery from acidification during the 1988-2001 period. Measurements of sulfate deposition in precipitation indicate that sulfate deposition in the region declined approximately 40% between 1985 and 2000. While no significant regional trends in acid-base constituents were observed for the set (n = 65) of western Virginia study streams, significant regional trends were observed for a subset (n = 14) of streams in Shenandoah National Park (SNP). For the subset of SNP streams, the median increase in acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) was 0.168 microequiv L(-1) year(-1) and the median decrease in sulfate concentration was -0.229 microequiv L(-1) year(-1). Although these trends are consistent with recovery from acidification, the degree of apparent recovery is small compared to estimates of historic acidification in SNP streams and much less than observed in other, more northern regions in the United States. Correlation between sulfate concentration trends and current sulfate concentrations in streamwater suggests that recovery from stream acidification in the western Virginia region is determined by sulfur retention processes in watershed soils. A transient increase in nitrate concentrations that occurred among some western Virginia streams following forest defoliation by the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) complicates interpretation of the observed patterns of change in acid-base status.