Increases in oil prices cause inflation. Interest rates are expected to decrease as a result of the expansionary monetary policies of the central banks in response to the indirect effect of increasing oil prices on inflation. Because an increase in oil price creates an additional foreign currency inflow to Kazakhstan, this leads to the appreciation of its national currency tenge. Therefore, this study uses monthly Brent Oil Price (OP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) values for the period 2015:M1–2021:M11 to investigate the effect of oil price on inflation and real exchange rate in Kazakhstan. Analysis are performed using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. The results showed that while the Real Effective Exchange Rate mostly affects the Oil Price, the Consumer Price Index variable affects the Real Effective Exchange Rate.

In this study, the relationship between KASE stock market closing prices and oil prices is analyzed using ADF and Zivot-Andrews' (1992) unit root tests and monthly data for the period of 2016-2021. First, the variables are tested for causality. Results show that there is a causal relationship between the real exchange rate and closing prices and between oil prices and the real exchange rate. The short-term effects of the variables are investigated using the VAR method. Results show that Brent crude oil prices have a positive effect on KASE closing prices, while the real exchange rate has a negative effect. In conclusion, changes in oil prices affect the formation of stock prices.

Many local and global factors affect the growth of national economies. Among these factors, energy production is one of the main sources of economic growth. This study examines the impact of energy production, especially electricity generation and thermal energy production, on economic growth in Kazakhstan. To provide a better explanation for the effect of energy production on economic growth, we also included fixed capital investment and consumer price index variables in our research model. Thus, economic growth data, fixed capital investments, consumer price index, electricity generation, and thermal energy production are determined as research variables. Research data were obtained from the databases of the World Bank and the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of the Agency of Strategic Planning and Reforms of Kazakhstan. The data range is from 2002 to 2020. The findings showed that fixed capital investment has the most dominant effect on economic growth. This is a natural result from a macroeconomic point of view. Another critical finding is that both electricity generation and fixed capital investments have a positive effect on economic growth. When the variable of the amount of electricity generated is included in the model, the explanatory power of the model increases from 85% to 90.7%.  However, the effect of thermal energy production was found to be statistically insignificant. This insignificance is a research problem that needs to be analyzed in detail, taking into account the general energy production structure of Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) is established on November 17, 1993, with the participation of 23 leading Kazakh banks under the leadership of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. KASE has had an important position in the country's economy since then. This study comparatively analyses the volatility structures of the return of the KASE Composite Index and the returns of the oil and energy companies traded in the KASE in the period between 5.01.2021 and 4.01.2023. The preliminary test (ARCH LM) showed that the volatility structure of the past period is effective on the current period in all four returns. Based on this finding, the structure of the series was evaluated with four different models. All four return series conformed with the GARCH-M (1, 1) model. Accordingly, the finding that oil and energy companies and the stock market composite index have the same volatility structure is important for investor decisions. Moreover, the finding that any past financial shock or volatility fluctuation affects the current return will positively affect the estimation of the future value of financial assets.

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