We propose independence and conditional coverage tests aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e. joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.
a b s t r a c tWe present an explicit formula and a multinomial approach for pricing contingent claims under a regime-switching jump-diffusion model. The explicit formula, obtained as an expectation of Merton-type formulae for jump-diffusion processes, allows to compute the price of European options in the case of a two-regime economy with lognormal jumps, while the multinomial approach allows to accommodate an arbitrary number of regimes and a generic jump size distribution, and is suitable for pricing American-style options. The latter algorithm discretizes log-returns in each regime independently, starting from the highest volatility regime where a recombining multinomial lattice is established. In the remaining regimes, lattice nodes are the same but branching probabilities are adjusted. Derivative prices are computed by a backward induction scheme.
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