A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree ring chronologies for paleo‐streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries come together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin‐scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space‐time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo‐streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. Our application to 18 streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross‐validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. The spatial network structure produced a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo‐streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network aggregating information from upstream gauges and tree ring chronologies. Uncertainty was reduced by more than 50% at six gauges, between 6% and 50% at one gauge, and by less than 5% at the remaining 11 gauges when compared with the traditional principal component regression reconstruction model.
Since 1954, the Delaware River has been managed under the framework of a Supreme Court decree and the subsequent concomitant intergovernmental collaboration between New York State, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New York City (NYC) and the US federal government. Taking an environmental perspective, we review the evolution of water release policies for three NYC reservoirs from the issuance of the 1954 decree through the implementation of the Flexible Flow Management Program (FFMP) of 2007–2015 and examine the policies' impact on the upper Delaware River. We describe governmental and institutional constraints on the development of Delaware water policy and show how modifications of release policies have enhanced aquatic habitat and ecological health in the upper Delaware while reliably delivering water to NYC and the Delaware's other principal stakeholders. We describe the development of the FFMP in 2006, its subsequent modification, and its augmentation by NYC's Operations Support Tool in 2012. Finally, we discuss the negative ecological consequences of the 2010–2016 stalemate on Delaware water policy resulting from conflicts between the decree parties about current and future water rights, and how the stalemate derives partially from the decision structure imposed by the 1954 decree and the Good Faith Agreement of 1983.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.