Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.

Genetic manipulations of insect populations for pest control have been advocated for some time, but there are few cases where manipulated individuals have been released in the field and no cases where they have successfully invaded target populations. Population transformation using the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia is particularly attractive because this maternally-inherited agent provides a powerful mechanism to invade natural populations through cytoplasmic incompatibility. When Wolbachia are introduced into mosquitoes, they interfere with pathogen transmission and influence key life history traits such as lifespan. Here we describe how the wMel Wolbachia infection, introduced into the dengue vector Aedes aegypti from Drosophila melanogaster, successfully invaded two natural A. aegypti populations in Australia, reaching near-fixation in a few months following releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti adults. Models with plausible parameter values indicate that Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes suffered relatively small fitness costs, leading to an unstable equilibrium frequency <30% that must be exceeded for invasion. These findings demonstrate that Wolbachia-based strategies can be deployed as a practical approach to dengue suppression with potential for area-wide implementation.

Dengue fever is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans with more than 50 million cases estimated annually in more than 100 countries. Disturbingly, the geographic range of dengue is currently expanding and the severity of outbreaks is increasing. Control options for dengue are very limited and currently focus on reducing population abundance of the major mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. These strategies are failing to reduce dengue incidence in tropical communities and there is an urgent need for effective alternatives. It has been proposed that endosymbiotic bacterial Wolbachia infections of insects might be used in novel strategies for dengue control. For example, the wMelPop-CLA Wolbachia strain reduces the lifespan of adult A. aegypti mosquitoes in stably transinfected lines. This life-shortening phenotype was predicted to reduce the potential for dengue transmission. The recent discovery that several Wolbachia infections, including wMelPop-CLA, can also directly influence the susceptibility of insects to infection with a range of insect and human pathogens has markedly changed the potential for Wolbachia infections to control human diseases. Here we describe the successful transinfection of A. aegypti with the avirulent wMel strain of Wolbachia, which induces the reproductive phenotype cytoplasmic incompatibility with minimal apparent fitness costs and high maternal transmission, providing optimal phenotypic effects for invasion. Under semi-field conditions, the wMel strain increased from an initial starting frequency of 0.65 to near fixation within a few generations, invading A. aegypti populations at an accelerated rate relative to trials with the wMelPop-CLA strain. We also show that wMel and wMelPop-CLA strains block transmission of dengue serotype 2 (DENV-2) in A. aegypti, forming the basis of a practical approach to dengue suppression.

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Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. A novel integrated framework to assess vulnerability and prioritize research and management action aims to improve our ability to respond to this emerging crisis.