The SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 illness are driving a global crisis. Governments have responded by restricting human movement, which has reduced economic activity. These changes may benefit biodiversity conservation in some ways, but in Africa, we contend that the net conservation impacts of COVID-19 will be strongly negative. Here, we describe how the crisis creates a perfect storm of reduced funding, restrictions on the operations of conservation agencies, and elevated human threats to nature. We identify the immediate steps necessary to address these challenges and support ongoing conservation efforts. We then highlight systemic flaws in contemporary conservation and identify opportunities to restructure for greater resilience. Finally, we emphasize the critical importance of conserving habitat and regulating unsafe wildlife trade practices to reduce the risk of future pandemics.

Savannas once constituted the range of many species that human encroachment has now reduced to a fraction of their former distribution. Many survive only in protected areas. Poaching reduces the savanna elephant, even where protected, likely to the detriment of savanna ecosystems. While resources go into estimating elephant populations, an ecological benchmark by which to assess counts is lacking. Knowing how many elephants there are and how many poachers kill is important, but on their own, such data lack context. We collated savanna elephant count data from 73 protected areas across the continent estimated to hold ~50% of Africa’s elephants and extracted densities from 18 broadly stable population time series. We modeled these densities using primary productivity, water availability, and an index of poaching as predictors. We then used the model to predict stable densities given current conditions and poaching for all 73 populations. Next, to generate ecological benchmarks, we predicted such densities for a scenario of zero poaching. Where historical data are available, they corroborate or exceed benchmarks. According to recent counts, collectively, the 73 savanna elephant populations are at 75% of the size predicted based on current conditions and poaching levels. However, populations are at <25% of ecological benchmarks given a scenario of zero poaching (~967,000)—a total deficit of ~730,000 elephants. Populations in 30% of the 73 protected areas were <5% of their benchmarks, and the median current density as a percentage of ecological benchmark across protected areas was just 13%. The ecological context provided by these benchmark values, in conjunction with ongoing census projects, allow efficient targeting of conservation efforts.

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In conservation, adaptive management relies on the assessment of past actions to improve conservation efficiencies in the future. Recently, conservation management approaches for African elephants changed, however, little has been done to assess the effectiveness of the changes. This is a major shortcoming as elephants (and their management) have a considerable influence on other savanna species. Traditionally, the management of elephants focused on artificially manipulating numbers through culling, water supplementation and fencing. Lately, and specifically in the Kruger National Park, the focus has progressed to promoting ecological processes that may naturally regulate elephant populations. Density-dependent habitat selectionsuggestive of competition for resourcesis fundamental in stimulating the regulatory processes that managers expect to promote. In this paper, we evaluated how effective the changes in Kruger's elephant management approach were in promoting density-2 dependent habitat selection. We used 15 years of helicopter-based surveys and resource selection functions to test our primary prediction that an increase in population density following the cessation of culling generalised dry season habitat selection by female elephants in Kruger (i.e. decreased selection of high-quality habitat and increased selection of lower quality habitat). We found that as densities increased, female occupancy of the Park rose and dry season selection of highly wooded areas that provide crucial resources for elephant survival and reproduction, weakened. Conversely, density had little effect on the selection of rivers. Rather, high dry season rainfall allowed female elephants to select areas farther from permanent water, potentially alleviating normal dry season foraging restrictions. Our novel identification of density-dependent habitat selection for elephants suggests that the change in conservation management in Kruger was effective in promoting a potential driver of population regulation. We suggest that ecological principles continue to provide an effective framework for scientific evaluation and elephant conservation management in Kruger and beyond.

Calls to increase the global area under protection for conservation assume existing conservation areas are effective but, without adequate investment, they may not be. We collected survey data from expert respondents on perceived budgets, management, and threats for 516 protected areas and community conservation areas in savannah Africa to create a Conservation Area Performance Index. Combining this index with an indicative biodiversity outcome—population status of African lion, Panthera leo—we found that 82% of the sampled area was in a state of failure or deterioration, with only 10% in a state of success or recovery. A large proportion of succeeding or recovering conservation areas received external support through collaborative management partnerships. That Africa's current conservation area network—the foundation of conservation efforts—is crumbling complicates proposed strategies to protect additional land. We contend that investing in the effective management of existing conservation areas—potentially through well‐structured collaborative management partnerships—should be prioritized urgently.