Despite the fact that Pakistan’s contribution to GHG emissions is low (0.8%) when compared to other countries but it is one of the hardest hit by climate change. The present study is an attempt to identify the impact of climate change on economic growth. The non-linear autoregressive distributional lag (NARDL) technique is used to estimate the asymmetric effect of climate change on the economic growth of Pakistan. Annual data covering the years 1980–2021 are used for empirical analysis. It is noteworthy to reiterate that CO2 emissions and mean temperature pose asymmetrical results concerning economic growth, both in the long-run and short-run. CO2_POS and CO2_NEG have a negative impact on economic growth, whereas MEANT_POS has a positive impact on economic growth and MEANT_NEG has a negative impact. Precipitation has a positive and significant long-term influence on economic growth. Research findings indicate that comprehensive mitigation policies at the nationwide and worldwide levels are required to limit human-caused climate change in Pakistan. At national level, tree planting projects and safeguard greenery at all costs while at international level, policies needed for adoption of mitigation strategies to control climate change.
Purpose ―Current paper assesses the impact of macroeconomic variables on Pakistan's economic growth.
Method ― This study analyzed the data using the Markov Regime switching (MS) model using monthly data for 1981-2020. Firstly, BDS and CUSUM square tests were applied to detect the non-linearity of the model.
Results ―The model is non-linear, so the Markov regime-switching model is used for analysis. Each regime's mean and variance are highly significant and show a high growth regime with high volatility and a low growth regime with low volatility. Furthermore, the results show that inflation, interest rate, and trade openness negatively impact while real effective exchange rates positively affect development in both regimes. The negative effect of interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, and trade openness become more pronounced in low growth regimes.
Implication ― This study suggests that policymakers should consider the non-linear behaviour of macroeconomics. This will help to formulate better policies for the economy's economic growth.
Originality ―The current research adds to the existing literature by identifying the non-linear effect of growth indicators on economic growth, which was previously neglected in the case of Pakistan.
This research explores the issue of gender discrimination and offers its solutions with reference to Pakistani context. A time series data from the period of 1990 to 2016 was used in this study. Dependent variable is GDP growth rate whereas independent variables are gender inequality index (GII), term of trade (TOT), literacy rate (Lit), interest rate (CMR), inflation (wpi) and female access to higher education (HE). For time series we check stationarity of data by employing unit root test which showed that series have mixed level interrogation, so, ARDL technique for best possible estimation. This has highlighted the long run relationship between inequality and economic growth in Pakistan. The results indicate that gender inequality and economic growth are inversely related to each other. Further results revealed that Literacy rates, Interest rate and inflation rate are negatively and significantly related to economic development while female access to higher education was found to have positive and significant impact while terms of trade have negative and insignificant impact on economic development.
The purpose of this study was to analyze the irregular pattern of changing inflation as a result of the pass-through of the exchange rate and fluctuations in oil prices in the current globalization scenario. We used annual data sets for crude oil prices, real effective exchange rates, and inflation in Pakistan from 1972 to 2021 for the analysis. The control variables used in the current study were imports (IMP), gross domestic product per capita (GDP), exports (EXP), globalization (GLOB), and interest rates (CRATE). Our findings from a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) analysis showed that inflation had an asymmetric rocket and feather pattern regardless of how globalization was defined or measured. On the other hand, GDP, EXP, and GLOB negatively impacted inflation, and CRATE and IMP had positive effects on inflation. Our study suggested that alternative policies, such as fixing the exchange rate, might decrease uncertainty and stabilize the Pakistani economy in the future. Moreover, increasing the use of sustainable energy would reduce the dependence of the economy on oil prices, which would lower its impact on the economy.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.