Background & Aims Following radiofrequency ablation (RFA), patients may experience recurrence of Barrett’s esophagus (BE) after complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia (CEIM). Rates and predictors of recurrence after successful eradication are poorly described. Methods We used the U.S. RFA Registry, a nationwide registry of BE patients receiving RFA, to determine rates and factors that predicted recurrence of IM. We assessed recurrence by Kaplan-Meier analysis for the overall cohort and by worst pretreatment histology. Characteristics associated with recurrence were included in a logistic regression model to identify independent predictors. Results Among 5521 patients, 3728 had biopsies ≥12 months after initiation of RFA. Of these, 3169 (85%) achieved CEIM, and 1634 (30%) met inclusion criteria. Average follow-up was 2.4 years after CEIM. IM recurred in 334 (20%), and was non-dysplastic or indefinite for dysplasia in 86% (287/334); the average length of recurrent BE was 0.6 cm. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, more advanced pretreatment histology was associated with an increased yearly recurrence rate. Compared to patients without recurrence, patients with recurrence were more likely, based on bi-variate analysis, to be older, have longer BE segments, be non-Caucasian, have dysplastic BE before treatment, and require more treatment sessions. In multivariate analysis, likelihood for recurrence was associated with increasing age and BE length, and non-Caucasian race. Conclusion BE recurred in 20% of patients followed for an average of 2.4 years after CEIM. Most recurrences were short segments and were non-dysplastic or indefinite for dysplasia. Older age, non-Caucasian race, and increasing length of BE length were all risk factors. These risk factors should be considered when planning post-RFA surveillance intervals.

1) The incidence of adenocarcinoma continues to rise in White males and females, but also in Hispanics, while squamous cell carcinoma is declining; 2) the incidence of stage 4 carcinomas has been declining, and 3) survival has been steadily improving, independently of all other risk factors.

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Background & Aims Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is commonly used to treat Barrett's esophagus (BE). We assessed the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) after RFA, predictors of EAC, and EAC-specific and all-cause mortality rates. Methods We assessed outcomes in a multicenter study of RFA for BE. Kaplan-Meier curves of EAC incidence were stratified by baseline histology. Crude EAC incidence and mortality (both all-cause and EAC-specific) rates were calculated, and adjusted all-cause mortality rates were assessed. Logistic regression models were constructed to assess predictors of EAC and all-cause mortality. Results Among 4982 patients, 100 (2%) developed EAC (7.8/1000 person-years (PY)), and 9 (0.2%) died of EAC (0.7/1000 PY) in a mean 2.7 ± 1.6 years. The incidence of EAC in non-dysplastic BE (NDBE) was 0.5/1000 PY. Overall, 157 (3%) patients died during follow-up (all-cause mortality 11.2/1000 PY). On multivariate logistic regression, baseline BE length (OR 1.1 per cm) and baseline histology (ORs of 5.8 and 50.3 for low grade dysplasia and high grade dysplasia (HGD) respectively) predicted EAC incidence. Among 9 EAC deaths, 6 (67%) had baseline HGD and 3 (33%) had baseline intramucosal EAC. The most common causes of death were cardiovascular (15%) and extra-esophageal cancers (15%). No deaths were associated with RFA. Conclusion In this multicenter registry of RFA for BE, death from EAC was rare. The incidence of EAC was markedly lower than natural history studies, with the greatest absolute benefit seen in HGD.

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