This paper first establishes a statistical measurement for OPEC Member Countries compliance levels with their respective quotas and then examines the correlations and the causal relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. The compliance level is measured by the deviation of the production level from the respective quota for OPEC Member Countries, and this is based on the Euclidean distance formula, while oil market fundamentals are represented by OECD oil demand and stock levels, and the OPEC Basket price and oil supply. Monthly data from January 1996 to June 2000 was used and two sub-periods considered, where the first sub-period was characterized by a low level of compliance and the second by a high level. The analytical results of correlations and causality showed different directions of relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals.

This paper's goal is to analyse the impact of changes to the oil export structure on economic growth in OPEC Member Countries. The Gini coefficient has been applied simultaneously as a measure of the annual changes in the structure of per capita oil exports, as well as of the annual share of oil exports among Member Countries.The analysis consists of a calculation of the concentration coefficients, a determination of their trend and an identification of the factors most influencing observed changes to the oil export structure in these countries.As a result, we find that economic growth, crude oil production, proven reserves, imports and time are the major factors influencing changes to the oil export structure. Considering the changed structure, in the context of differences in oil export distribution, we observe that economic growth and production have a positive impact on the distribution of oil exports and that proven reserves and imports have a negative impact.December 1998

The purpose of the present work is to analyse oil product consumption trends within OPECs 11 Member Countries and to compare the consumption structures within and between the countries. The study examines consumption structures by product (gasoline, kerosene, distillates, residuals and others) and the most relevant indicators of economic growth during the period 198098.The analysis shows that, during this period, most countries increased their consumption of gasoline, kerosene and distillates, which are light and medium products. However, the consumption of heavy products, such as residuals, was diversified within the considered countries.The structural change analysis, which relates to the similarities in the oil product consumption structures of Member Countries, was carried out by using sub-groups for the periods in which consumption structures are similar. This grouping seems to be the result of the (continued overleaf) 118 © 2001 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC Review The author is Statistical Systems Analyst in the Data Services Department at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria. He wishes to acknowledge, with thanks, Hamid Dahmani, Rachid Bencherif and Keith Marchant for their comments and review of the original manuscript. Special thanks also goes to Sheela Kriz for her assistance.influence of important factors on oil consumption, mainly oil product domestic prices, refinery capacity and configuration, the demographic factor and social unrest. Further steps in the study refer to some practical aspects regarding observed homogeneity in the grouping of oil consumption patterns. Abstract (continued)June 2001