Abstract:Climate change has been revealed to increase the occurrence of natural disasters and to damage ecological systems. In coastal regions, there are many environmentally significant areas from the viewpoint of biodiversity, such as areas registered under the Ramsar Convention. The Kushiro Wetland is the largest wetland and one of the most significant natural systems in Japan, remaining mostly unaffected by human activity. In the wetland, there are many species, which do not tolerate saltwater. When the sea level rises, the communities of freshwater plants and fish may die out due to the extension of salt wedge intrusion along the Kushiro River. Therefore, in this study we make an attempt to understand the impact of sea level rise on the ecological system of the wetland by using a three-dimensional numerical model, which allows us to evaluate the effect of sea level rise on salt wedge intrusion. It is revealed that the National Park area may be affected by salt water when sea level rise reaches about 0.15 m. Also, the maximum sea level rise may induce saltwater intrusion into the Ramsar area. As a result, we proposed an adaptive management strategy for protecting the ecological system of the wetland from salt wedge intrusion.

This paper describes the effect of sea-level rise (SLR) on the salt wedge intrusion in terms of ecological system in Kushiro wetland. Kushiro wetland was registered by Ramsar Treaty and the largest wetland in Japan. A previous study demonstrates that the salt wedge intrusion may not affect ecological system of Kushiro wetland, such as loss of freshwater plants along Kushiro River. However, it is revealed that SLR may occur in the end of the 21st century, which enhances the increase in the distance of the salt wedge intrusion along Kushiro River and the loss of endangered species of Kushiro wetland along Kushiro River. This study thus aims to investigate the influence of the salt wedge intrusion on freshwater plants along Kushiro River, and to clarify the salt wedge intrusion when SLR occurs due to climate change. We attempted to investigate the influence of SLR on endangered species along KyuKushiro River in which sea water is likely to intrude up to about 8 km from the river mouth. As results, it is suggested from field observations that salinity may decrease freshwater plants along Kushiro River, and it clarifies the possibility that the salt wedge intrudes Kushiro River due to SLR by using 3D hydrodynamic model, Fantom3D.