Renal dysfunction is common after liver transplantation. However, there are only limited data on the predictors and natural history of renal dysfunction after liver transplantation. In this study, we determined independent predictors and the natural history of renal dysfunction in 172 consecutive liver transplant recipients. Survival and time to development of permanent renal dysfunction (renal dysfunction defined as a sustained decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of > 30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 from baseline for at least 6 months, severe renal failure defined as absolute GFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for at least 6 months) were determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression analysis was used to test the independent effect of a given set of variables on time to development of such an event. Nine percent of patients required immediate dialysis, 35% developed permanent renal dysfunction, and 7% developed severe renal failure. The rate of decline in renal dysfunction was maximal, 6.5 mL/min/1.73 m 2 /mo, at 1 month after liver transplantation. Pre-existing diabetes mellitus, major surgical infection, and waiting time on the transplant list were independent risk factors for immediate dialysis. Presence of serum creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL at any time before liver transplantation and a baseline GFR <70 mL/min/1.73 m 2 were independent predictors of permanent renal dysfunction. Diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, and primary graft nonfunction predicted the development of severe renal failure. GFR stabilized around 9 months, and presence of decreased GFR > 30mL/min/1.73 m 2 from baseline at 9 months predicted development of permanent renal dysfunction. An absolute GFR of <30mL/min/1.73 m 2 occurring as early as 3 months after liver transplantation predicted severe renal failure. Severe renal failure was associated with a significantly lower survival by Cox regression analysis. We have identified risk factors and the natural history of permanent renal dysfunction and severe liver failure in liver transplant recipients. These observations may be useful in the development of nonnephrotoxic immunosuppressive regimens for high-risk liver transplant recipients. (Liver Transpl 2003;9:741-747.) L ong-term outcome of liver transplantation has improved over the past 2 decades because of better surgical experience, with the introduction of calcineurin inhibitors, and more importantly, because of better selection criteria. However, about 10% to 20% of long-term survivors develop permanent renal dysfunction or failure, which has been attributed to a number of factors, including the use of calcineurin inhibitors. 1,2 A significant proportion (range, 5% to 50%) of liver transplantation procedures is complicated by acute renal failure in the immediate postoperative period, with more frequent occurrence in those who have hepatorenal syndrome at the time of liver transplantation. [3][4][5][6][7][8] In the subgroup of patients who develop acute renal failure and survive, 80% to 90% regain some degree of renal function, ...

In this study, we evaluated trends and outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) in adults ≥70 years with hematologic malignancies across the United States. Adults ≥70 years with a hematologic malignancy undergoing first allogeneic HCT in the United States between 2000 and 2013 and reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research were eligible. Transplant utilization and transplant outcomes, including overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and transplant-related mortality (TRM) were studied. One thousand one hundred and six patients ≥70 years underwent HCT across 103 transplant centers. The number and proportion of allografts performed in this population rose markedly over the past decade, accounting for 0.1% of transplants in 2000 to 3.85% (N = 298) in 2013. Acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes represented the most common disease indications. Two-year OS and PFS significantly improved over time (OS: 26% [95% confidence interval (CI), 21% to 33%] in 2000-2007 to 39% [95% CI, 35% to 42%] in 2008-2013, < .001; PFS: 22% [16% to 28%] in 2000-2007 to 32% [95% CI, 29% to 36%] in 2008-2013, = .003). Two-year TRM ranged from 33% to 35% and was unchanged over time ( = .54). Multivariable analysis of OS in the modern era of 2008-2013 revealed higher comorbidity by HCT comorbidity index ≥3 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.27; = .006), umbilical cord blood graft (HR, 1.97; = .0002), and myeloablative conditioning (HR, 1.61; = .0002) as adverse factors. Over the past decade, utilization and survival after allogeneic transplant have increased in patients ≥70 years. Select adults ≥70 years with hematologic malignancies should be considered for transplant.

Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after 1 week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long-term outcomes vary widely among centers, and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken 1 week after systemic treatment of GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into a test cohort (n = 236) and 2 validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and n = 129). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at 4 weeks, 1-year nonrelapse mortality (NRM), and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of 2 MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid-resistant patients into 2 groups with dramatically different NRM and OS ( < .001 for all 3 cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids, and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, = .004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, = .005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after 1 week of systemic treatment of GVHD predict long-term outcomes in steroid-resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies.

In the statistics section, the equation to generate a final prediction model from the training set was incorrect. The correct sentence is below. We then created a training set at random and repeated the entire process to generate a final model: log[-log(1-p̂)] =-11.263 + 1.844(log10ST2) + 0.577(log10REG3α), where p̂ = predicted probability of 6-month NRM.

Primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy with a dismal prognosis; new modalities of treatment as alternatives to surgery have been developed for unresectable patients. The authors obtain baseline data for the natural history of HCC so that the efficacy of new treatments may be evaluated. A retrospective study of 157 untreated patients with tissue-proven or serodiagnosed HCC was conducted. Clinical characteristics including laboratory investigation, treatment received, survival from the time of diagnosis, and prognostic factors were evaluated. There were 129 men and 28 women (ratio, 4.6:1). Median age was 50.9 years (range, 14.1-85.3 years). The most common symptoms and signs were weight loss (68.2%), abdominal fullness (62.5%), abdominal pain (51.6%), hepatomegaly (73.7%), ascites (45.2%), and jaundice (40.6%). Eighteen percent had extrahepatic metastases of which the lungs were the most common site. Seventy percent were hepatitis B virus related. Overall median survival was 8.7 weeks after the time of diagnosis. Survivals by stages were: TNM II, 16.6 weeks; TNM III, 7.3 weeks; TNM IVA, 9.7 weeks; TNM IVB, 7.6 weeks; Okuda II, 10.7 weeks; and Okuda III, 7.3 weeks. Multivariate analysis revealed serum total bilirubin and albumin as independent prognostic factors of survival. Common causes of death were upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (34.1%), cancer-related causes (cachexia, HCC rupture, metastatic disease, 31.8%), and hepatic failure (25.0%). Patients with HCC were diagnosed at late stages of their disease and the advanced nature of the tumor precluded effective therapy. Earlier tumor detection at a time when patients are better candidates for treatment may be aided by an active surveillance program of high risk groups.