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Campi Flegrei is an active volcanic area situated in the Campanian Plain (Italy) and dominated by a resurgent caldera. The great majority of past eruptions have been explosive, variable in magnitude, intensity, and in their vent locations. In this hazard assessment study we present a probabilistic analysis using a variety of volcanological data sets to map the background spatial probability of vent opening conditional on the occurrence of an event in the foreseeable future. The analysis focuses on the reconstruction of the location of past eruptive vents in the last 15 ka, including the distribution of faults and surface fractures as being representative of areas of crustal weakness. One of our key objectives was to incorporate some of the main sources of epistemic uncertainty about the volcanic system through a structured expert elicitation, thereby quantifying uncertainties for certain important model parameters and allowing outcomes from different expert weighting models to be evaluated. Results indicate that past vent locations are the most informative factors governing the probabilities of vent opening, followed by the locations of faults and then fractures. Our vent opening probability maps highlight the presence of a sizeable region in the central eastern part of the caldera where the likelihood of new vent opening per kilometer squared is about 6 times higher than the baseline value for the whole caldera. While these probability values have substantial uncertainties associated with them, our findings provide a rational basis for hazard mapping of the next eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera.

[1] A multiparticle thermofluid dynamic model was developed to assess the effect of a range of particle size on the transient two-dimensional behavior of collapsing columns and associated pyroclastic flows. The model accounts for full mechanical and thermal nonequilibrium conditions between a continuous gas phase and N solid particulate phases, each characterized by specific physical parameters and properties. The dynamics of the process were simulated by adopting a large eddy simulation approach able to resolve the large-scale features of the flow and by parametrizing the subgrid gas turbulence. Viscous and interphase effects were expressed in terms of Newtonian stress tensors and gasparticle and particle-particle coefficients, respectively. Numerical simulations were carried out by using different grain-size distributions of the mixture at the vent, constitutive equations, and numerical resolutions. Dispersal dynamics describe the formation of the vertical jet, the column collapse and the building of the pyroclastic fountain, the generation of radially spreading pyroclastic flows, and the development of thermal convective instabilities from the fountain and the flow. The results highlight the importance of the multiparticle formulation of the model and describe several mechanical and thermal nonequilibrium effects. Finer particles tend to follow the hot ascending gas, mainly in the phoenix column and, secondarily, in the convective plume above the fountain. Coarser particles tend to segregate mainly along the ground both in the proximal area close to the crater rim because of the recycling of material from the fountain and in the distal area, because of the loss of radial momentum. As a result, pyroclastic flows were described as formed by a dilute fine-rich suspension current overlying a dense underflow rich in coarse particles from the proximal region of the flow. Nonequilibrium effects between particles of different sizes appear to be controlled by particle-particle collisions in the basal layer of the flow, whereas particle dispersal in the suspension current and ascending plumes is determined by the gas-particle drag. Simulations performed with a different grain-size distribution at the vent indicate that a fine-grained mixture produces a thicker and more mobile current, a larger runout distance, and a greater elutriated mass than the coarse-grained mixture.

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