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Energy market models are generally focused on energy balancing using the optimum energy mix. In countries where the energy markets are not fully liberalised, the State Regulators reflect any cost of being off-balance on the utility companies and this affects the consumers as well. The right short term prediction of the market trends is beneficial both to optimise the physical energy flow and commercial revenue balance for suppliers and utility companies. This study is aimed to predict the sign trends in the power market by selecting the influencing factors adaptive to the conditions of the day ahead, 10 hours, 5 hours, 2 hours and 1 hour before the electricity balance is active. There are numerous factors consisting of weather conditions, resource costs, operation costs, renewable energy conditions, regulations, etc. with a considerable impact on the predictions. The contribution of this paper is to choose the factors with the highest impacts using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) with Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), which are then used as input of a Recursive Neural Network (RNN) model for forecasting the deviation trends. The proposed hybrid method does not only reduce the prediction errors but also avoid dependency on expert knowledge. Hence this paper will allow both the market regulator and the suppliers to take precautions based on a confident prediction.

The day-ahead power market has become more complex with the allowance of block purchases from private sales companies. Resource handling has become the prominent problem for both energy suppliers and energy distributers. Complexity of the problem forces the approach by each role player in the market. This research handles the market position of a small hydropower plant owner who has negligible effect on market price construction in a complex competition environment. Based on an optimum schedule of three days, this model proposes policies for the power generator to maximize its profits. An MILP model, which uses the day-ahead market price forecasts from a hybrid SARIMA-ANN price forecasting model, is designed to optimize the day-ahead generation schedule. The case application in Turkish power market shows the increase of profit with a reliable generation schedule.