LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016–2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015–2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022–2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023–2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD.

Forecasts are valuable to countries to make informed business decisions and develop data-driven strategies. The production of pulses is an integral part of agricultural diversification initiatives because it offers promising economic opportunities to reduce rural poverty and unemployment in developing countries. Pulses are the cheapest source of protein needed for human health. India's pulses production guidelines must be based on accurate and best forecast models. Comparing classical statistical and machine learning models based on different scientific data series is the subject of high-level research today. This study focused on the forecasting behaviour of pulses production for India, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The data series was split into a training dataset (1950–2014) and a testing dataset (2015–2019) for model building and validation purposes, respectively. ARIMA, NNAR and hybrid models were used and compared on training and validation datasets based on goodness of fit (RMSE, MAE and MASE). This research demonstrates that due to the diverse agricultural conditions across different provinces in India, there is no single model that can accurately predict pulse production in all regions. This study’s highest accuracy model is ARIMA. ARIMA outperforms NNAR, a machine learning model. Pulse production in India, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh will expand by 26.11%, 12.62%, and 0.51% from 2020 to 2030, whereas it would decline by − 6.5%, − 6.21%, and − 6.76 per cent in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh, respectively. The current forecast results could allow policymakers to develop more aggressive food security and sustainability plans and better Indian pulses production policies in the future.