Setting targets for the bank branches and distribution of annual targets to the branches and portfolio managers, quarterly, is a crucial process for decision making and strategic planning in the banking industry. Performance of the bank branches and portfolio managers are also evaluated by the quarterly divided targets to the branches and portfolio managers. In this study, the focus is on performance prediction by using state-of-art machine learning algorithms. A novel automated machine learning approach with combined algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimization is also applied for each of the branches since all the branches might have different customer segmentation and behavior. Moreover, the postconditions are executed to finalize the target calculation and distribution over the performance predictions. The study shows the success of the methodology with a successful application of 98% accuracy in the prediction and majority of branch target calculations. An end-to-end solution found to the seasonality and periodicity problem, which is the biggest problem faced by branches while achieving their goals. Also, the novel approach increases the success of branch targets by 10% in overall. The most significant innovation this study provides to the literature and practitioners is that, unlike classical studies, it solves the seasonality and periodicity problem through multiple time series modeling. The target setting procedure was employed by the largest financial institution in Turkey, Ziraat Bank, to evaluate the operating performance of its branches. The empirical study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in the banking sector. The outputs of the study are implemented in real life for all retail branches of Ziraat Bank. In addition, the study awarded the most innovative use of AI/ML, the most innovative project for in-house implementation related to the innovative aspect of the work, by the Global FinTech Innovation Awards 2022.

Since the beginning of 2020, the world has been struggling with a viral epidemic (COVID-19), which poses a serious threat to the collective health of the human race. Mathematical modeling of epidemics is critical for developing such policies, especially during these uncertain times. In this study, the reproduction number and model parameters were predicted using AR(1) (autoregressive time-series model of order 1) and the adaptive Kalman filter (AKF). The data sample used in the study consists of the weekly and daily number of cases amongst the Ziraat Bank personnel between March 11, 2020, and April 19, 2021. This sample was modeled in the state space, and the AKF was used to estimate the number of cases per day. It is quite simple to model the daily and weekly case number time series with the time-varying parameter AR(1) stochastic process and to estimate the time-varying parameter with online AKF. Overall, we found that the weekly case number prediction was more accurate than the daily case number (R2 = 0.97), especially in regions with a low number of cases. We suggest that the simplest method for reproduction number estimation can be obtained by modeling the daily cases using an AR(1) model. JEL classification numbers: C02, C22, C32. Keywords: COVID-19, Modeling, Reproduction number estimation, AR(1), Kalman filter.