Abstract:The Azores Current originating as a branch of the Gulf Stream is a highly dynamic system in the subtropical North Atlantic. The associated front forms the northeastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre. In this study we analyzed 42 years of assimilated modeled temperature fields to localize the position of the Azores Front at 22 • W and observed a fast north-and southward propagation between 30 • N and 37 • N on monthly to decadal time scales. The North Atlantic Oscillation with correlated changes of the wind direction was identified as one driving mechanism. As the front is acting as a guide for Rossby waves, the signal of the front's propagation is transferred to the western Atlantic and, among other atmospheric forcing mechanisms, induces a shifting of the Northern Wall of the Gulf Stream with one year delay. Shallower mixed layer depths in the northern frontal region of the Azores Current caused by the rise of the isotherms lead to nutrient supply and primary production different from those found in the southern frontal region of the current system. A high interannual variability is manifested in deep ocean particle flux, derived from a sediment trap in 2000 m water depth at the mooring site KIEL276 (33 • N, 22 • W) from 1993 to 2008, which is directly related to the phytoplankton bloom in the euphotic zone. This variability is explained by the propagation of the front and strong variations in the catchment areas of the sediment trap due to the associated eddy activity in the frontal region.

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The understanding of natural variability of harvestable fish stocks is of fundamental interest for their management; however, time series are often biased by the impact of fisheries. Observations suggest that the mean weight of central Baltic Sea herring (Clupea harengus), a quantity unbiased by fisheries, is indirectly influenced by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) via a complex mediator chain, in which a transition from a marine to a freshwater state plays a major role. This observed trend is also projected for the future in regional climate change scenarios. The consequence of increasing precipitation is a reduction in the marine habitat, a change in the prey community and a decrease in the mean weight of 3-year-old central Baltic Sea herring from 50 to 70 g in the late 1970s to 25-30 g today. The reduction in weight over this period represents a reduction in landings of approximately one million tons of herring and an economic loss of the order of e100 million.

A chlorophyll a hindcast in the Madeira Basin from 1871 to 2008 was used to analyze the long‐term variability in the oligotrophic, subtropical gyres in relation to the climate change of the last century. The deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM), as dominant pattern of the chlorophyll a field, showed a fast decrease in its strength in the 1940s. An absolute minimum was reached between 1967 and 1973 when no DCM established with a recovering to the end of the time series. Long‐term variability of the DCM was related to the North Atlantic Oscillation with a time delay of 9 years. The marked decrease in the 1940s was correlated to the drop of the solar radiation in transition from early brightening to global dimming. Caused by the influence of the solar radiation and maybe related to increasing global temperatures in the last century, the integrated chlorophyll a concentration decreased by about 0.7 mg m−2 in 2008 compared to 1871. The high‐resolved chlorophyll a hindcast allowed an estimation of the carbon uptake by the ocean due to primary production in the euphotic zone. A rough calculation over the area of the global subtropical oceans showed 700 megaton less carbon uptake in 2008.

Understanding the development of primary production is essential for projections of the global carbon cycle in the context of climate change. A chlorophyll a hindcast that serves as a primary production indicator was obtained by fitting in situ measurements of nitrate, chlorophyll a, and temperature. The resulting fitting functions were adapted to a modeled temperature field. The method was applied to observations from the Madeira Basin, in the northeastern part of the oligotrophic North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre and yielded a chlorophyll a field from 1989 to 2008 with a monthly resolution validated with remotely measured surface chlorophyll a data by SeaWiFS. The chlorophyll a hindcast determined with our method resolved the seasonal and interannual variability in the phytoplankton biomass of the euphotic zone as well as the deep chlorophyll maximum. Moreover, it will allow estimation of carbon uptake over long time scales.