A general discussion of the quantification of uncertainty in numerical simulations is presented. A principal conclusion is that the distribution of solution errors is the leading term in the assessment of the validity of a simulation and its associated uncertainty in the Bayesian framework. Key issues that arise in uncertainty quantification are discussed for two examples drawn from shock wave physics and modeling of petroleum reservoirs. Solution error models, confidence intervals and Gaussian error statistics based on simulation studies are presented.

An indirectly-driven shock tube experiment fielded on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) was used to create a high-energy-density hydrodynamics platform at unprecedented scale. Scaling up a shear-induced mixing experiment previously fielded at OMEGA, the NIF shear platform drives 130 μm/ns shocks into a CH foam-filled shock tube (∼ 60 mg/cc) with interior dimensions of 1.5 mm diameter and 5 mm length. The pulse-shaping capabilities of the NIF are used to extend the drive for >10 ns, and the large interior tube volumes are used to isolate physics-altering edge effects from the region of interest. The scaling of the experiment to the NIF allows for considerable improvement in maximum driving time of hydrodynamics, in fidelity of physics under examination, and in diagnostic clarity. Details of the experimental platform and post-shot simulations used in the analysis of the platform-qualifying data are presented. Hydrodynamic scaling is used to compare shear data from OMEGA with that from NIF, suggesting a possible change in the dimensionality of the instability at late times from one platform to the other.

Accurate models of X-ray absorption and re-emission in partly stripped ions are necessary to calculate the structure of stars, the performance of hohlraums for inertial confinement fusion and many other systems in high-energy-density plasma physics. Despite theoretical progress, a persistent discrepancy exists with recent experiments at the Sandia Z facility studying iron in conditions characteristic of the solar radiative-convective transition region. The increased iron opacity measured at Z could help resolve a longstanding issue with the standard solar model, but requires a radical departure for opacity theory. To replicate the Z measurements, an opacity experiment has been designed for the National Facility (NIF). The design uses established techniques scaled to NIF. A laser-heated hohlraum will produce X-ray-heated uniform iron plasmas in local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) at temperatures 150 eV and electron densities 7 × 10 21 cm −3. The iron will be probed using continuum X-rays emitted in a ∼200 ps, ∼200 µm diameter source from a 2 mm diameter polystyrene (CH) capsule implosion. In this design, 2/3 of the NIF beams deliver 500 kJ to the ∼6 mm diameter hohlraum, and the remaining 1/3 directly drive the CH capsule with 200 kJ. Calculations indicate this capsule backlighter should outshine the iron sample, delivering a point-projection transmission opacity measurement to a time-integrated X-ray spectrometer viewing down the hohlraum axis. Preliminary experiments to develop the backlighter and hohlraum are underway, informing simulated measurements to guide the final design.

No abstract

No abstract