One key element of a deterministic bulk system planning criteria is the performance table.The table lists contingencies that planners must examine and sets the minimum acceptable performance level for those events. A basic premise is that lower performance levels, in terms of system impacts, are acceptable for events that are less likely to happen. However, the tables were developed based on planner's experience and intuition, but without a formal framework for their construction. Our focus is to use outage data and models for multiple outages to examine the likelihood of various contingencies. The Bonneville Power Administration revised its criteria based on this analysis.

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Transmission planning in today's deregulated electric power systems should, at best, include a vigorous treatment of risk. Given that risk is the product of the likelihood of an event and the associated consequence (monetary or otherwise), it is present at every stage of the transmission expansion process -from the load forecast all the way to construction. Identification of risk factors at each stage of the transmission planning process, its likelihood and associated consequence is therefore critical, and necessary, in reaping maximum benefit. This paper provides a practical application of the inclusion of risk, based on the widely accepted Australia-New Zealand (AU-NZ) Risk Model [15], into the transmission planning process at Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) -a federal government agency that owns and operates the backbone of the electrical network of the US Pacific Northwest.