Purpose – The study aimed at examining the current and future impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. Design/methodology/approach – A translog production function based on crop yield response framework was used. A panel model was estimated using data drawn from cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. An in-sample simulation was used to determine the predictive power of the model. In addition, an out-sample simulation revealed the effect of future trends of temperature and precipitation on cocoa output. Findings – Temperature and precipitation play a considerable role in cocoa production in West Africa. It was established that extreme temperature adversely affected cocoa output in the sub-region. Furthermore, increasing temperature and declining precipitation trends will reduce cocoa output in the future. Practical implications – An important implication of this study is the recognition that lagging effects are the determinants of cocoa output and not coincident effects. This finds support from the agronomic point of view considering the gestation period of the cocoa crop. Originality/value – Although several studies have been carried out in this area, this study modeled and estimated the interacting effects of factors that influence cocoa production. This is closer to reality, as climatic factors and agricultural inputs combine to yield output.

Real exchange rate volatility is an important contributor to risks in the financial world. During periods of excessive fluctuations in exchange rates, foreign trade and investments could be affected negatively. The objective of this study is to determine the sources of exchange rate volatility in Ghana. The methodology employed is a dynamic econometric technique based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) Model to account for psychological inertia among others. The study used annual data covering the period 1980 to 2012 to investigate the determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Ghana. Consistent with the empirical literature, government expenditure is a major determinant of real exchange rate volatility. There existed a positive relationship between them. Further, both domestic and external debts were negatively related to real exchange rate volatility. Current external debt and a four year lag of domestic debt had significant impacts on real exchange rate volatility. The main contribution of this paper is empirical and methodological. Empirically, it adds new empirical evidence and new dimensions to the literature on determinants of exchange rate volatility in developing economies.

The relationship between interest rate, real money balances and real output may be explored in an IS-LM framework. The objective of this study is to explore the connection between real interest rate, GDP and real money balances. It also empirically tests for the nature and existence of the IS-LM framework in Ghana. Employing a simple IS-LM framework, the Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique is used for the analysis. The main contribution of this paper is the use of a simultaneous equation framework to investigate interest rate and GDP growth determinants. This is imperative since interest rate is both an explanatory and an explained variable. The results indicated that real money balances exerted a negative but significant influence on real interest rate. The growth rate of GDP had a dominant influence on real interest rate. On the other hand, investment expenditure exerted significant and positive influence on GDP growth. Meanwhile, as informed by economic theory, interest rate changes had a negative and significant influence on GDP growth. The study recommends the role of monetary policy and economic growth in exchange rate management. Also, policy focus should be on interest rate since interest rate is seen in this study as a stronger driver of economic growth in Ghana compared with investment expenditure.

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