Wheat occupies a prime position in supplementing the food security needs of India. Price forecast related to a food commodity is essential in executing policies which ensure market support. Keeping this in view, an attempt was made to forecast monthly wholesale wheat prices adopting ARIMA model in spatially separated markets of India using the historical data sourced from AGMARK price portal (July 2002-June 2018). Wheat prices exhibited a clearcut seasonality captured through monthly price indices. The prices were found to be highest during the crop season (November-March) as it is the production phase lacking market supply and lowest during post-harvest season (June- October) wherein supply surge is witnessed. The average seasonal price variation and intra-year price rise were found to be highest in Haryana, followed by Punjab. Forecasted prices estimated by fitting the ARIMA model were found to be higher for low or negligible wheat producing states such as Kerala and Karnataka, and lower for higher wheat producing states like Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Forecast performance the fitted models were further supported by using measures like RMSE, MAPE and MAE with 95% confidence interval. The study emphasized the need for effective dissemination of market information such as price forecast to farmers, agri-based industries and other concerned stakeholders which will help in decision making apart from tracking price volatility.
In the aftermath of introduction of major agricultural marketing reforms such as amendment of APMC Act, e-NAM in the state of Odisha, there was hardly any study assessing the performance of regulated markets in Odisha. Therefore present study was undertaken to study the performance of existing regulated markets, scope of e-NAM and various constraints faced by the farmers to market their produce in the state. Both primary as well as secondary data was collected from respective APMCs and AGMARK net portal. Trend analysis was employed to study the pattern of arrival and prices of major commodities. Garret ranking was done to study the constraints faced by farmers. Findings show that state is gearing up to establish the required infrastructure for implementation of e-NAM, arrivals showed mixed trend and lack of remunerative prices and lack of market information emerged as major constraints faced by farmers in the state. Highlights m Current status of Regulated markets in Odisha. m Scope for e-NAM in the state. m Trend in the arrival and prices of major commodities to regulated markets. m Constraints analysis of farmers bringing produce to regulated markets.
During last two and half decades , the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of livestock sector has grown at an annual rate of 3.9%. However, there are significant variations in it across states. It is estimated very high in Tamil Nadu (8.7%), Andhra Pradesh (7.6%) & Odisha (7.6%) and extremely low in Jammu & Kashmir (0.6%), Himachal Pradesh (-0.4%) and Bihar (-4.3%). Interestingly, TFP growth has been driven by technical change. The estimates of scale efficiency indicate scope of raising output by about 30% even at the existing levels of input-use. The findings suggest the need for greater investment in animal science research and development, especially in the states that have poorly performed on technological front.
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