Macro-prudential policies have an essential role in mitigating the imbalances in the financial sector that stem from procyclical credit growth. This study aims to evaluate macro-prudential policy in mitigating risk on procyclical credit growth with a registry data approach. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) analysis method is used to evaluate macro-prudential policy in influencing credit growth. The results show LTV instruments can reduce credit growth but not to procyclical mitigation. Dissimilar results in the implementation of CCB and GWM + LDR instruments are capable of procyclical credit mitigation. Policies that can be done by the central bank are the establishment of an early warning system in macro-prudential policy as well as strengthening of Countercyclical Buffer (CCB), Loan to Value (LTV) instruments and Minimum Reserve Requirement + Loan Funding Ratio (GWM + LFR) in capturing systemic risks from various sources which further strengthens the assessment and surveillance.DOI:10.15408/etk.v17i2.7324

The theory of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle provides evidence of the instability of exchange rate relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. This study will analyse the enactment of the theory of the exchange rate disconnect puzzle with the macroeconomic fundamental phenomenon in affecting the exchange rate movements in the ASEAN-6. The method of analysis Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) with panel data is used to provide an explanation for the existence of the theory of the exchange rate puzzle disconnect. Results the analysis showed the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals through proxies of the monetary approach affect to exchange rate movements in the ASEAN-6. AbstrakTeori the exchange rate disconnect puzzle memberikan bukti ketidakstabilan hubungan nilai tukar dengan fundamental makroekonomi. Penelitian ini akan menganalisis berlakunya teori the exchange rate disconnect puzzle dengan fenomena fundamental makroekonomi dalam memengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar di ASEAN-6. Metode analisis Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) dengan data panel digunakan untuk memberikan penjelasan atas eksistensi teori the exchange rate disconncet puzzle. Hasil analisis menunjukan terdapat hubungan antara fundamental makroekonomi melalui proksi pendekatan moneter berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar di ASEAN-6.

The issue of demography into an important discussion caused can affect economic growth and inequality in East Java Inequality in east Java showed an increase.Unequal distribution of income is a source of high inequality in East Java. This study aims to show the effectiveness of demographic changes can affect inequality in East Java with the approach of Overlapping Generations (OLG) model. The data used in this research is time series data in the first quarter of 2010- the fourth quarter 2015. Analyzer used in this research is Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results of this study show that demographic changes in East Java have the potential to increase inequality. The number of productive age populations with non-productive causes of high inequality. Consumption rate and the number of the productive workforces also become one of the sources of inequality. Therefore, the Settlement of inequality coupled with demographic changes in East Java needs the role of government through targeted social protection programs and infrastructure improvements. In addition, the need for land-based policies, opportunity-based policies, human resource capacity building policies, job matching.

Fluktuasi nilai tukar dalam jangka pendek dapat dijelaskan melalui pendekatan struktur mikro pasar valuta asing. Konsep yang dibangun oleh pendekatan struktur mikro pasar valuta asing adalah bahwa berita makroekonomi (berita di koran) dapat memengaruhi nilai tukar di pasar valuta asing dengan mengubah asumsi para pelaku. Tujuan penelitian ini, menganalisis dampak berita makroekonomi domestik dan Cina dalam memengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar di Indonesia. Variabel yang digunakan adalah nilai tukar dan berita makroekonomi domestik dan Cina pada 2/1/2013-31/12/2018. Proksi sebagai berita makroekonomi adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi (GDP), retail sales dan transaksi berjalan. Alat analisis Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) digunakan untuk meninjau hubungan berita makroekonomi dengan nilai tukar. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa berita makroekonomi domestik dan Cina memiliki pengaruh terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar di Indonesia. Kebijakan yang digunakan oleh Indonesia untuk memitigasi dampak berita makroekonomi adalah menjaga fundamental makroekonomi. Di sisi lain, peningkatan efisiensi dan kredibilitas di pasar keuangan juga perlu dilakukan untuk menstabilkan pergerakan nilai tukar.