Background and objectivesMalaria is among the most important parasitic diseases, and is one of the endemic diseases in Iran. This disease is often known as a disease related to climate changes. Due to the health and economic burden of malaria and the location of Kerman province in an area with high incidence of malaria, the present study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic factors on the incidence of this disease.Material and methodsData on the incidence of malaria in Kerman province was inquired from Kerman and Jiroft Medical Universities and climatic variables were inquired from the meteorological organization of Kerman. The data was analyzed monthly from 2000 to 2012. Variations in incidence of malaria with climatic factors were assessed with negative binomial regression model in STATA11software. In order to determine the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence, cross-correlation analysis was done with Minitab16.ResultsThe most effective meteorological factor on the incidence of malaria was temperature. As the mean, maximum, and minimum of monthly temperature increased, the incidence rate raised significantly. The multivariate negative binomial regression model indicates that a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature in a given month was related to a 15% and 19% increase on malaria incidence on the same and subsequent month, respectively (p-value = 0.001). Humidity and Rainfall were not significant in the adjusted model.ConclusionTemperature is among the effective climatic parameters on the incidence of malaria which should be considered in planning for control and prevention of the disease.

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Malaria is a major health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries and in the south of Iran. In this study, due to the importance of the disease in Sistan and Baluchestan province, the influence of temperature, humidity, and rainfall on malaria has been evaluated in areas with a high incidence of malaria. Malaria incidence data were inquired from the Province Health Authority, and climatic variables were inquired from the Bureau of Meteorology from 2000 to 2012 and were analyzed on a monthly basis. Changes in incidence of malaria with climatic factors were analyzed by negative binomial regression by Stata 11, and the correlations were calculated with Minitab15 for determining the potential impact of meteorological variables with and without lags on malaria transmission. The incidence of malaria had a significant positive correlation with the average, minimum, and maximum monthly temperatures and a negative correlation with rainfall and low humidity (<60%). However, humidity >60% had a positive impact on incidence; as in the town of Chabahar after adjusting variables such as rainfall and temperature; every one percent increase in humidity caused a 4% increase in malaria incidence in the same month and a significant 6% increase in the next month. Temperature and humidity over 60% are effective climate parameters in the incidence of malaria. These factors should be considered in planning for controlling and preventing malaria.