Conventional cage housing for laying hens evolved as a cost-effective egg production system. Complying with mandated hen housing alternatives would raise marginal production costs and require sizable capital investment. California data indicate that shifts from conventional cages to barn housing would likely cause farm-level cost increases of about 40% per dozen. The US data on production costs of such alternatives as furnished cages are not readily available and European data are not applicable to the US industry structure. Economic analysis relies on key facts about production and marketing of conventional and noncage eggs. Even if mandated by government or buyers, shifts to alternative housing would likely occur with lead times of at least 5 yr. Therefore, egg producers and input suppliers would have considerable time to plan new systems and build new facilities. Relatively few US consumers now pay the high retail premiums required for nonconventional eggs from hens housed in alternative systems. However, data from consumer experiments indicate that additional consumers would also be willing to pay some premium. Nonetheless, current data do not allow easy extrapolation to understand the willingness to pay for such eggs by the vast majority of conventional egg consumers. Egg consumption in the United States tends to be relatively unresponsive to price changes, such that sustained farm price increases of 40% would likely reduce consumption by less than 10%. This combination of facts and relationships suggests that, unless low-cost imports grew rapidly, requirements for higher cost hen housing systems would raise US egg prices considerably while reducing egg consumption marginally. Eggs are a low-cost source of animal protein and low-income consumers would be hardest hit. However, because egg expenditures are a very small share of the consumer budget, real income loss for consumers would be small in percentage terms. Finally, the high egg prices imposed by alternative hen housing systems raise complex issues about linking public policy costs to policy beneficiaries.

There has been considerable debate regarding which probability distribution best represents crop yields. This study ranks six yield densities based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The forecasting ability for each density was ranked according to its likelihood function value when observed at out-of-sample observations. Results show that a semiparametric model offered by Goodwin and Ker best forecasts county average yields. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

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The attributes of egg production that elicit values-based responses include the price and availability of eggs, environmental impacts, food safety or health concerns, and animal welfare. Different social groups have distinct interests regarding the sustainability of egg production that reflect these diverse values. Current scientifically based knowledge about how values and attitudes in these groups can be characterized is uneven and must be derived from studies conducted at varying times and using incomplete study methods. In general, some producer and consumer interests are translated through markets and are mediated by market mechanisms, whereas others are poorly reflected by economic behavior. An array of survey and focus group research has been performed to elicit consumer and activist beliefs about performance goals they would expect from an egg production system. These studies provide evidence that consumers' market behavior may be at odds with their ethical and political beliefs about performance goals.

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