Krishnarajah. (2017) Metabolically healthy obese and incident cardiovascular disease events among 3.5 million men and women. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 70 (12). pp. 1429-1437. Permanent WRAP URL:http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/94321 Copyright and reuse:The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work by researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable the material made available in WRAP has been checked for eligibility before being made available.Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. A note on versions:The version presented here may differ from the published version or, version of record, if you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher's version. Please see the 'permanent WRAP url' above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription. (1995 to 2015) in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) to assemble a cohort of 3.5 million individuals, 18 years or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease. We created body size phenotypes defined by BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight and obesity) and three metabolic abnormalities (diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia). The primary endpoints were the first record of one of 4 cardiovascular presentations [coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, and peripheral vascular disease (PVD)].Results: During a mean follow-up period of 5.4 years, obese individuals with 0 metabolic abnormalities had a higher risk of CHD (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.49, 95% CI 1.45, 1.54), cerebrovascular disease (1.07, 95% CI 1.04, 1.11) and heart failure (1.96, 95% CI 1.86, 2.06) compared to normal weight individuals with 0 metabolic abnormalities. Risk of CHD, cerebrovascular disease and heart failure in normal weight, overweight and obese individuals increased with increasing number of metabolic abnormalities. Conclusion: Metabolically healthy obese individuals had a higher risk of coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and heart failure than normal weight metabolically healthy individuals. Even individuals who are normal weight can have metabolic abnormalities, and have similar risks for cardiovascular disease events.

BackgroundAndrogen excess is a defining feature of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), which affects 10% of women and represents a lifelong metabolic disorder, with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular events. Previous studies have suggested an increased risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in individuals with PCOS and implicated androgen excess as a potential driver.Methods and findingsWe carried out a retrospective longitudinal cohort study utilizing a large primary care database in the United Kingdom, evaluating NAFLD rates in 63,120 women with PCOS and 121,064 age-, body mass index (BMI)-, and location-matched control women registered from January 2000 to May 2016. In 2 independent cohorts, we also determined the rate of NAFLD in women with a measurement of serum testosterone (n = 71,061) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG; n = 49,625). We used multivariate Cox models to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for NAFLD and found that women with PCOS had an increased rate of NAFLD (HR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.86–2.66, p < 0.001), also after adjusting for BMI or dysglycemia. Serum testosterone >3.0 nmol/L was associated with an increase in NAFLD (HR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.16–4.53, p = 0.017 for 3–3.49 nmol/L and HR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.24–4.66, p = 0.009 for >3.5 nmol/L). Mirroring this finding, SHBG <30 nmol/L was associated with increased NAFLD hazard (HR = 4.75, 95% CI 2.44–9.25, p < 0.001 for 20–29.99 nmol/L and HR = 4.98, 95% CI 2.45–10.11, p < 0.001 for <20 nmol/L). Limitations of this study include its retrospective nature, absence of detailed information on criteria used to diagnosis PCOS and NAFLD, and absence of data on laboratory assays used to measure serum androgens.ConclusionsWe found that women with PCOS have an increased rate of NAFLD. In addition to increased BMI and dysglycemia, androgen excess contributes to the development of NAFLD in women with PCOS. In women with PCOS-related androgen excess, systematic NAFLD screening should be considered.

In tropical and subtropical regions of eastern and South-eastern Asia, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur frequently. Previous studies indicate an association between meteorological variables and dengue incidence using time series analyses. The impacts of meteorological changes can affect dengue outbreak. However, difficulties in collecting detailed time series data in developing countries have led to common use of monthly data in most previous studies. In addition, time series analyses are often limited to one area because of the difficulty in collecting meteorological and dengue incidence data in multiple areas. To gain better understanding, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on dengue incidence in three geographically distinct areas (Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura) of Sri Lanka by time series analysis of weekly data. The weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall and the total number of dengue cases from 2005 to 2011 (7 years) were used as time series data in this study. Subsequently, time series analyses were performed on the basis of ordinary least squares regression analysis followed by the vector autoregressive model (VAR). In conclusion, weekly average maximum temperatures and the weekly total rainfall did not significantly affect dengue incidence in three geographically different areas of Sri Lanka. However, the weekly total rainfall slightly influenced dengue incidence in the cities of Colombo and Anuradhapura.