The ever-growing interest in and requirement for green energy have led to an increased focus on research related to forecasting solar irradiance recently. This study aims to develop forecast models based on deep learning (DL) methodologies and multiple-site data to predict the daily solar irradiance in two locations of India based on the daily solar radiation data obtained from NASA’s POWER project repository over 36 years (1983–2019). The forecast modeling of solar irradiance data is performed for extracting and learning the symmetry latent in data patterns and relationships by the machine learning models and utilizing it to predict future solar data. The goodness of fit and model performance are compared with rolling window evaluation using mean squared error, root-mean-square error and coefficient of determination (R2) for evaluation. The contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (i) time series models based on deep learning methodologies were implemented to forecast the daily solar irradiance of two locations in India in consideration of the historical data collected by NASA; (ii) the models were developed on the basis of single-location univariate data as well as multiple-location data; (iii) the accuracy, performance and reliability of the model were investigated on the basis of standard performance evaluation metrics and rolling window evaluation; (iv) the feature importance of the nearby locations with respect to forecasting target location solar irradiance was analyzed and compared based on the solar irradiance data obtained from NASA over 36 years. The results indicate that the bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) and attention-based LSTM models can be used for forecasting daily solar irradiance data. According to the findings, the multiple-site data with solar irradiance historical data improve upon the forecast performance of single-location univariate solar data.
This article presents the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and its Attention mechanism to develop forecasting models for renewable energy applications. In this study, wind speed and solar irradiance forecasting models have been developed as these two factors play a significant role in renewable energy production. The irregular nature of wind poses the challenge of accurate wind speed prediction, while solar irradiance forecasting can aid in the planning and deployment of solar power plants. In this paper, six RNN techniques, namely RNN, GRU, LSTM, Content-based Attention, Luong Attention, and Self-Attention based RNN are considered for forecasting the future values of wind speed and solar irradiance in particular geographical locations. The aim is the identification of the advantages, comparison, and importance of different recurrent neural network methods for forecasting models. All models are developed on the datasets of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER).
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