BackgroundChina is a country that is most seriously affected by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) with 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. At present, HFRS is getting worse with increasing cases and natural foci in China. Therefore, there is an urgent need for monitoring and predicting HFRS incidence to make the control of HFRS more effective. In this study, we applied a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting HFRS incidence in China.MethodsChinese HFRS data from 1975 to 2008 were used to fit ARIMA model. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Ljung-Box test were used to evaluate the constructed models. Subsequently, the fitted ARIMA model was applied to obtain the fitted HFRS incidence from 1978 to 2008 and contrast with corresponding observed values. To assess the validity of the proposed model, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the observed and fitted HFRS incidence (1978-2008) was calculated. Finally, the fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast the incidence of HFRS of the years 2009 to 2011. All analyses were performed using SAS9.1 with a significant level of p < 0.05.ResultsThe goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA (0,3,1) model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (Ljung-Box Q statistic = 5.95,P = 0.3113). The fitted values made by ARIMA (0,3,1) model for years 1978-2008 closely followed the observed values for the same years, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 12.20%. The forecast values from 2009 to 2011 were 0.69, 0.86, and 1.21per 100,000 population, respectively.ConclusionARIMA models applied to historical HFRS incidence data are an important tool for HFRS surveillance in China. This study shows that accurate forecasting of the HFRS incidence is possible using an ARIMA model. If predicted values from this study are accurate, China can expect a rise in HFRS incidence.

The HIV epidemic continues to develop among older adults in China, including older female sex workers. Yet, few studies have been conducted among this relatively hidden population. The objectives of this study were to investigate the reasons for women's entry into sex work during their thirties and to develop typology of older women sex workers. Semi-structured in-depth interviews with sixty-three older women sex workers and six focus groups interviews with stakeholders were conducted in three cities in China in 2012. Data were analysed inductively using constant comparative method. The mean age of participants was 43 years old and the mean age of entry into sex work was 39 years old. The primary reasons for entry into sex work include heavy economic burdens, limited employment opportunities, and the appealing nature of sex work. Street-based and venue-based older sex workers were identified based on where they solicited clients. Street-based older sex workers were more likely to engage in unsafe commercial sex due to financial incentives, whereas those in entertainment venues were unlikely to use condoms with regular clients. The development of effective HIV interventions needs to consider older women sex workers unique characteristics and target factors that impede safer sex practices.

Scrub typhus is emerging and re-emerging in many areas: climate change may affect its spread. To explore the effects of meteorological factors on scrub typhus, monthly cases of scrub typhus from January 2006 to December 2012 in the Laiwu district of temperate northern China were analysed. We examined the correlations between scrub typhus and meteorological factors (and their delayed effects). We built a time-series adjusted negative binomial model to reflect the relationships between climate variables and scrub typhus cases. The key determinants of scrub typhus transmission were temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. Each 1°C increase in monthly average temperature in the previous 3 months, each 1% increase in monthly relative humidity in the previous 2 months and each 1 mm increase in monthly precipitation in the previous 3 months induced 15·4%, 12·6% and 0·7% increases in the monthly number of cases, respectively. In conclusion, scrub typhus is affected by climate change in temperate regions.

Abstract. This study aimed to investigate the association between meteorological-related risk factors and bacillary dysentery in a subtropical inland Chinese area: Changsha City. The cross-correlation analysis and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model were used to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery. Monthly mean temperature, mean relative humidity, mean air pressure, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature were significantly correlated with the number of bacillary dysentery cases with a 1-month lagged effect. The ARIMAX models suggested that a 1 C rise in mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature might lead to 14.8%, 12.9%, and 15.5% increases in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease, respectively. Temperature could be used as a forecast factor for the increase of bacillary dysentery in Changsha. More public health actions should be taken to prevent the increase of bacillary dysentery disease with consideration of local climate conditions, especially temperature.

BackgroundFemale commercial sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in China. This study was designed to examine the predictors of condom use with clients during vaginal intercourse among FSWs based on the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model and to describe the relationships between IMB model constructs.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted in Jinan of Shandong Province, from May to October, 2009. Participants (N = 432) were recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS). A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Structural equation modeling was used to assess the IMB model.ResultsA total of 427 (98.8%) participants completed their questionnaires. Condom use was significantly predicted by social referents support, experiences with and attitudes toward condoms, self-efficacy, and health behaviors and condom use skills. Significant indirect predictors of condom use mediated through behavioral skills included HIV knowledge, social referents support, and substance use.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the IMB model could be used to predict condom use among Chinese FSWs. Further research is warranted to develop preventive interventions on the basis of the IMB model to promote condom use among FSWs in China.