SummaryBackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.InterpretationSince 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.FundingWellcome Trust.

BackgroundAlthough extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) is less frequent than Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and is a secondary target for national TB control programs, its significance has increased worldwide during the HIV epidemic. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiology of EPTB in Brazil between 2007 and 2011.MethodsCross-sectional study involving all cases of TB reported to the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (Sistema de Informações de Agravo de Notificação - SINAN) in Brazil between 2007 and 2011. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of patients with exclusively PTB and exclusively EPTB were compared. Following analysis with Pearson’s chi-square test, variables with p < 0.05 were included in a hierarchical regression model. Variables with p < 0.05 in the corresponding level were kept in the model.ResultsA total of 427,548 cases of TB were included. Of these, 356,342 cases (83.35%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 83.23% - 83.45%) were PTB, 57,217 (13.37%; 95% CI 13.28% - 13.48%) were EPTB, 13,989 (3.27%; 95% CI 3.21% - 3.32%) were concurrent pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB. Patients with EPTB were mainly white (16.7%), and most (29.1%) patients had five to eight years of education. Among comorbidities, HIV infection was prominent (OR 2.15; 95% CI 2.09 – 2.21), although the proportion of cases awaiting test results or untested was high (39%). Ethanol use (OR 0.45; 95% CI 0.43 – 0.46), diabetes mellitus (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.51 – 0.57) and mental illness (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82 – 0.95) were associated with PTB.ConclusionsThirteen percent of patients diagnosed with TB in Brazil have only EPTB. More effective diagnostic strategies and control measures are needed to reduce the number of cases of extrapulmonary TB in Brazil.

Background Social protection interventions might improve tuberculosis outcomes and could help to control the epidemic in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the independent effect of the Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) on tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Brazil. Methods We prospectively recruited and followed up individuals (aged ≥18 years) who initiated tuberculosis treatment at 42 health-care centres across seven cities in Brazil, between March 1, 2014, and April 30, 2017. Patients were interviewed at health-care centres and information about individual characteristics, socioeconomic status, living conditions, lifestyle, and comorbidities was recorded. Patients were separated into two groups according to BFP beneficiary status: BFP (exposed) or non-BFP (not exposed). Treatment outcome (cure, dropout, death, or development of drug-resistant tuberculosis or treatment failure) was recorded after 6 months of therapy. Pearson's χ² test and ANOVA were used to compare tuberculosis treatment outcomes between the two groups, and we estimated the propensity score of being a beneficiary of the BFP using a logit model. We used multinomial regression models to evaluate the effect of the BFP on tuberculosis treatment outcomes. Findings 1239 individuals were included in the study, of whom 196 (16%) were beneficiaries of the BFP and 1043 (84%) were not. After 6 months of treatment, 912 (87%) of 1043 patients in the non-BFP group and 173 (88%) of 196 patients in the BFP group were cured of tuberculosis, 103 (10%) patients in the non-BFP group and 17 (9%) patients in the BFP group had dropped out, and 25 (3%) patients in the non-BFP group and six (3%) patients in the BFP group had died. Three (<1%) of 1043 patients in the non-BFP group developed drug-resistant tuberculosis. Being a BFP beneficiary had a positive effect for cure (average effect 0•076 [95% CI 0•037 to 0•11]) and a negative effect for dropout (-0•070 [-0•105 to 0•036]) and death (-0•002 [-0•021 to 0•017]). Interpretation BFP alone had a direct effect on tuberculosis treatment outcome and could greatly contribute to the goals of the WHO End TB Strategy. Funding Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) and Brazilian Ministry of Health Department of Science and Technology (DECIT).

SummaryBackgroundDiabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA1c. We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions.MethodsWe used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA1c (HbA1c ≥6·5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG ≥7·0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT ≥11·1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori.FindingsPopulation prevalence of diabetes based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r=0·98), but was higher by 2–6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA1c was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42·8% of age–sex–survey groups and higher in another 41·6%; in the other 15·6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA1c-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA1c 6·5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52·8% (95% CI 51·3–54·3%) and a pooled specificity of 99·74% (99·71–99·78%) compared with FPG 7·0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30·5% (28·7–32·3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA1c versus FPG.InterpretationDifferent biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA1c-based definition alo...

BackgroundSeveral studies have evaluated the relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and tuberculosis (TB), but the nature of this relationship is not fully understood. TB incidence may be influenced by immunosuppression from DM, but this association may be confounded by other clinical and socioeconomic factors. We aimed to assess socio-demographic and clinical differences in TB patients with and without DM.MethodsUsing the Brazilian national surveillance system (SINAN), we compared 1,797 subjects with TB and DM with 29,275 subjects diagnosed with TB only in 2009. We performed multivariate analysis to identify factors associated with the presence of DM among TB patients.ResultsSubjects with TB – DM were older; have initial positive sputum smear test (OR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.26–1.60), and were more likely to die from TB (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.03–2.01). They were less likely to have been institutionalized [in prison, shelter, orphanage, psychiatric hospital (OR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.60–0.93)]; developed extra pulmonary TB (OR = 0.62, 95% CI 0.51–0.75) and to return to TB treatment after abandonment (OR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.51–0.86).ConclusionsPrevalence of NCD continues to rise in developing countries, especially with the rise of elderly population, the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases will be urgent. DM and TB represent a critical intersection between communicable and non-communicable diseases in these countries and the effect of DM on TB incidence and outcomes provide numerous opportunities for collaboration and management of these complex diseases in the national public health programs.