The inherently unknown future development of a Nordic bio-economy was studied with four scenarios applied in an ecosystem service assessment framework. This framework couples CORINE land use cover with estimates of 15 final ecosystem services from the CICES 5.1 classification in biophysical and monetary terms. Current land use in two catchments, Lillebæk (83% cropland, area 4.7 km2, Denmark) and Ovre Haldenvassdraget (67% forest, 1006 km2, Norway) was compared with four scenarios for 2050. One scenario focusing on sustainability and environmental awareness led to considerable changes in land use and ecosystem service delivery (more diverse provisioning and higher value of regulating services, but not a higher total economic value), whereas the other three did not deviate markedly from the current scenario. Projected land use scenarios were verified with experts and stakeholder representatives. We conclude that the framework has sufficient resolution to show differences in service delivery among scenarios.

Mass developments of macrophytes occur frequently worldwide and are often considered a nuisance when interfering with human activities. It is crucial to understand the drivers of this perception if we are to develop effective management strategies for ecosystems with macrophyte mass developments. Using a comprehensive survey spanning five sites with different macrophyte species in four countries (Norway, France, Germany and South Africa), we quantified the perception of macrophyte growth as a nuisance among residents and visitors, and for different recreational activities (swimming, boating, angling, appreciation of biodiversity, appreciation of landscape and birdwatching). We then used a Bayesian network approach to integrate the perception of nuisance with the consequences of plant removal. From the 1234 responses collected from the five sites, a range of 73–93% of the respondents across the sites considered macrophyte growth a nuisance at each site. Residents perceived macrophytes up to 23% more problematic than visitors. Environmental mindedness of respondents did not influence the perception of nuisance. Perceived nuisance of macrophytes was relatively similar for different recreational activities that were possible in each case study site, although we found some site-specific variation. Finally, we illustrate how Bayesian networks can be used to choose the best management option by balancing people’s perception of macrophyte growth with the potential consequences of macrophyte removal.

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Nordic catchments provide a variety of ecosystem services, from harvestable goods to mitigation of climate change and recreational possibilities. Flows of supplied ecosystem services depend on a broad range of factors, including climate, hydrology, land management and human population density. The aims of this study were: 1) to quantify the total economic value (TEV) of consumed ecosystem services across Nordic catchments, 2) to explain variation in ecosystem service value using socio-geographic and natural factors as explanatory variables in multiple linear regression, and 3) to determine which societal groups benefit from these ecosystem services. Furthermore, we tested the scientific rigour of our framework based on the concept of final ecosystem services (FES). We used a spatially explicit, integrative framework for ecosystem services quantification to compile data on final ecosystem services provision from six catchments across Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Our estimates showed a broad variation in TEV and in the proportion contributed by separate services, with the highest TEV of €7,199 ± 4,561 ha-1 y-1 (mean ± standard deviation) in the Norwegian Orrevassdraget catchment, and the lowest TEV of €183 ± 517 ha-1 y-1 in the Finnish Simojoki catchment. The value of material services was dependent on both geographic factors and land management practices, while the value of immaterial services was strongly dependent on population density and the availability of water. Using spatial data on land use, forest productivity and population density in a GIS analysis showed where hotspots of ecosystem services supply are located, and where specific stakeholder groups benefit most. We show that our framework is applicable to a broad variety of data sources and across countries, making international comparative analyses possible.