This paper examines if there exists a long run relationship among five macroeconomic variables, consumer price index, industrial output, money supply, exchange rate, oil prices along with the global stock prices proxy Standard and Poor 500 index and Saudi all share stock index. Time series analysis is applied using monthly data from January 1994 to June 2013. Application of Johansen cointegration test finds the existence of a long run relationship among the chosen variables. All macroeconomic variables are found to impact stock prices. Standard and Poor 500 index does not affect Saudi stock prices. Vector error correction model shows the presence of long run causality from the explanatory variables to the stock prices. Short run causality test finds a two-way causality between stock prices and oil prices. Impulse response function shows that industrial production shocks pushes up stock prices while consumer price index shocks pulls it down. Variance decompositions show that historical stock prices are the major driver of Saudi stock prices. This implies that Saudi stock market follows weak form of market efficiency. The results of this paper have important implications for the investors in Saudi stock market.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2025 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.