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Objective. Texas is regarded as a safe Republican state, yet in recent elections Democrats have gained electoral ground. This study investigates if generational replacement and demographic changes are leading to an increase in Democratic identification, with the potential to create an environment for increasingly competitive elections. A competitive Texas will have national political implications. Method. Party identification and ideology are analyzed, with line graphs and linear regression, using public opinion surveys of Texans from 2009 to 2019. The impact of generation cohorts and demographics are the main independent variables of interest. Results. The findings demonstrate that younger cohorts of white Texans are less likely to identify as Republican and older cohorts of white Texans are most likely. All cohorts of Texans of color are likely to identify as Democrats. Conclusions. Generational and demographic changes are leading to an increase in Democratic party identification and a decline in Republican identification. The mobilization by parties of young Texans, who are trending toward Democrats, and people of color is critical to the future of Texas politics.Overlooked in the fallout of the 2020 presidential election was a result from Texas-Joe Biden lost the state by 5.6 points. While it was a loss, it was an improvement over Hillary Clinton's 9-point 2016 loss and Barack Obama's 16-point loss in 2012. During the 2018 midterm elections, in a campaign that drew national attention, Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Texas, came much closer to unseating incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz than seemed possible in a solidly Republican state (lost by 2.5 percent). In addition, in 2020 Texas Democrats maintained congressional and state legislative gains from 2018; however, Democratic goals of winning control of the state house and gaining congressional seats went unfulfilled. The last time Texas Democrats won a statewide election was in 1994 and the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Texas has the second most Electoral College votes (40 in 2024 as as result of the 2020 Census). If it becomes competitive, Texas will have a major impact on national politics.Is Texas (TX) becoming more competitive? One explanation for the improving results for Democrats is that macro Democratic party identification is increasing as a result of changing demographics in the state. The percentage of the population composed of people of color (POC), especially among Latinos, constitutes a majority and is growing. 1 There is an expectation that this will lead to political party change because Latinos and

In the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Texas Democrat Beto O'Rourke came within 2.5% of defeating Senator Ted Cruz. In the 2016 presidential election Hilary Clinton lost to Donald Trump by 9%points. While this was a large loss, it was narrower than Barack Obama's 16%-point loss in 2012. Do these results indicate the long-awaited party transformation in Texas has begun, or was it simply a case of a 2018 Democratic wave election? The state's ethnic and racial minority groups (people of color [POC]) are now a majority of the population, and the non-Hispanic white population is aging and being replaced by a much smaller cohort of whites. Have the demographic changes that Texas has experienced primed Texas for change from Republican domination to competitive elections between Democrats and Republicans? This research will examine party identification in Texas by investigating demographic data and political generations. Individual level survey data from 2009-through 2019 will be used to measure trends in party identification by POC and generational cohorts. The initial findings suggest that Texas may be entering a transition phase as older white Texans (a large and very Republican cohort) are replaced by younger whites who are less likely to identify as Republican and are a relatively small cohort. In addition, the growing POC population that is replacing the older white cohorts is also the most likely to identify as Democratic. Thus, the research indicates that change is coming to Texas, and this change will have national political implications.

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