No abstract

The main objective of this research is to investigate a new fractional mathematical model involving a nonsingular derivative operator to discuss the clinical implications of diabetes and tuberculosis coexistence. The new model involves two distinct populations, diabetics and nondiabetics, while each of them consists of seven tuberculosis states: susceptible, fast and slow latent, actively tuberculosis infection, recovered, fast latent after reinfection, and drug-resistant. The fractional operator is also considered a recently introduced one with Mittag–Leffler nonsingular kernel. The basic properties of the new model including non-negative and bounded solution, invariant region, and equilibrium points are discussed thoroughly. To solve and simulate the proposed model, a new and efficient numerical method is established based on the product-integration rule. Numerical simulations are presented, and some discussions are given from the mathematical and biological viewpoints. Next, an optimal control problem is defined for the new model by introducing four control variables reducing the number of infected individuals. For the control problem, the necessary and sufficient conditions are derived and numerical simulations are given to verify the theoretical analysis.

Highlights A predictive COVID-19 model is considered. The second wave of COVID-19 in Iran is studied. Some predictive results of the peak epidemic outbreak are given. Estimated times of the end of the epidemic in Iran in several scenarios are approximated in the plots. The second wave of COVID-19 is predicated to happen between August and December 2020.