A serological survey to investigate risk factors for Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) occurrence was conducted between October 2007 and March 2008 in Southern Ethiopia. Antibodies against non-structural protein of FMD virus (using 3abc ELISA) were measured as indicator of exposure to the virus. The seroprevalence of FMD was 9.5% (95%CI = 7.7 - 11.3, n = 1020) and 48.1% (95% CI = 36.8 - 59.4%, n = 79), respectively at animal and herd levels. Within herd seropositivity was ranged from 6.7 to 46.7% with 18.6% (95%CI = 14.6 - 22.5%) risk of being seropositive for an animal in positive herds. The most important herd level risk factors identified were pastoral system (OR = 16.3, 95% CI = 2.0 -133.7) compared to sedentary, low altitude (OR = 7.5, 95% CI 1.4 -40.7) compared to high altitude, keeping cattle with small ruminants (OR = 5.1, 95% CI 1.0 -25.2) when compared to one species or alone. Seroprevalence was significantly higher (P <0.05) in South Omo than Sidama and Gamo Gofa areas. The odds of seropositivity were 2.8 and 2.3 times higher in the adult (>4 years) and maturing animals (3-4 years) compared to young age category (<3 years). Both multivariable logistic and negative binomial regressions depicted that production system was the major risk factor for FMD seropositivity. Consequently, higher prevalence of FMD in pastoral system where animals are an integral part of life has substantial livelihood and economic implications, which signifies the need for devising control measures.

BackgroundThe impacts of interannual climate fluctuations on vector-borne diseases, especially malaria, have received considerable attention in the scientific literature. These effects can be significant in semi-arid and high-elevation areas such as the highlands of East Africa because cooler temperature and seasonally dry conditions limit malaria transmission. Many previous studies have examined short-term lagged effects of climate on malaria (weeks to months), but fewer have explored the possibility of longer-term seasonal effects.MethodsThis study assessed the interannual variability of malaria occurrence from 2001 to 2009 in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We tested for associations of climate variables summarized during the dry (January–April), early transition (May–June), and wet (July–September) seasons with malaria incidence in the early peak (May–July) and late peak (September–December) epidemic seasons using generalized linear models. Climate variables included land surface temperature (LST), rainfall, actual evapotranspiration (ET), and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI).ResultsWe found that both early and late peak malaria incidence had the strongest associations with meteorological conditions in the preceding dry and early transition seasons. Temperature had the strongest influence in the wetter western districts, whereas moisture variables had the strongest influence in the drier eastern districts. We also found a significant correlation between malaria incidence in the early and the subsquent late peak malaria seasons, and the addition of early peak malaria incidence as a predictor substantially improved models of late peak season malaria in both of the study sub-regions.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that climatic effects on malaria prior to the main rainy season can carry over through the rainy season and affect the probability of malaria epidemics during the late malaria peak. The results also emphasize the value of combining environmental monitoring with epidemiological surveillance to develop forecasts of malaria outbreaks, as well as the need for spatially stratified approaches that reflect the differential effects of climatic variations in the different sub-regions.

BackgroundSince 2005, Ethiopia has aggressively scaled up malaria prevention and case management. As a result, the number of malaria cases and deaths has significantly declined. In order to track progress towards the elimination of malaria in Amhara Region, coverage of malaria control tools and current malaria transmission need to be documented.MethodsA cross-sectional household survey oversampling children under 5 years of age was conducted during the dry season in 2013. A bivalent rapid diagnostic test (RDT) detecting both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax and serology assays using merozoite antigens from both these species were used to assess the prevalence of malaria infections and exposure to malaria parasites in 16 woredas (districts) in Amhara Region.Results7878 participants were included, with a mean age of 16.8 years (range 0.5–102.8 years) and 42.0% being children under 5 years of age. The age-adjusted RDT-positivity for P. falciparum and P. vivax infection was 1.5 and 0.4%, respectively, of which 0.05% presented as co-infections. Overall age-adjusted seroprevalence was 30.0% for P. falciparum, 21.8% for P. vivax, and seroprevalence for any malaria species was 39.4%. The prevalence of RDT-positive infections varied by woreda, ranging from 0.0 to 8.3% and by altitude with rates of 3.2, 0.7, and 0.4% at under 2000, 2000–2500, and >2500 m, respectively. Serological analysis showed heterogeneity in transmission intensity by area and altitude and evidence for a change in the force of infection in the mid-2000s.ConclusionsCurrent and historic malaria transmission across Amhara Region show substantial variation by age and altitude with some settings showing very low or near-zero transmission. Plasmodium vivax infections appear to be lower but relatively more stable across geography and altitude, while P. falciparum is the dominant infection in the higher transmission, low-altitude areas. Age-dependent seroprevalence analyses indicates a drop in transmission occurred in the mid-2000s, coinciding with malaria control scale-up efforts. As malaria parasitaemia rates get very low with elimination efforts, serological evaluation may help track progress to elimination.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1884-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This study piloted an event-based surveillance system at the health centre (HC) level in Ethiopia. The system collects rumours in the community and registers them in rumour logbooks to record events of disease outbreaks and public health emergencies. Descriptive analysis was conducted on the events captured at the 59 study HCs in the Amhara Region in north-western Ethiopia between October 2013 and November 2014. A total of 126 rumours were registered at two thirds of the HCs during the study period. The average event reporting time was 3.8 days; response time of the HCs was 0.6 days, resulting in a total response time of 4.4 days. The most commonly reported rumours were measles-related (n = 90, 71%). These rumours followed a similar pattern of measles cases reported in the routine surveillance system. The largest proportion of rumours were reported by community members (n = 38, 36%) followed by health post workers (n = 36, 29%) who were normally informed by the community members about the rumours. This surveillance system was established along with an existing indicator-based surveillance system and was simple to implement. The implementation cost was minimal, requiring only printing and distribution of rumour logbooks to the HCs and brief orientations to focal persons. In countries where routine surveillance is still weak, an event-based surveillance system similar to this should be considered as a supplementary tool for disease monitoring.

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