The coronavirus pandemic has had huge impacts on the National Health Service (NHS). Patients suffering from the illness have placed unprecedented demands on acute care, particularly on intensive care units (ICUs). This has led to an effort to dramatically increase the resources available to NHS hospitals in treating these patients, involving reorganisation of hospital facilities, redeployment of existing staff and a drive to bring in recently retired and newly graduated staff to fight the pandemic. These increases in demand and changes to supply have had large knock-on effects on the care provided to the wider population. This paper discusses likely implications for healthcare delivery in the short and medium term of the responses to the coronavirus pandemic, focusing primarily on the implications for non-coronavirus patients. Patterns of past care suggest those most likely to be affected by these disruptions * Submitted May 2020. The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the ESRC-funded Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy (ES/M010147/1), and thank NHS Digital for access to the Hospital Episode Statistics under data sharing agreement CON-205762-B8S7B. Thanks are extended to Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson and Robert Joyce for comments on an earlier draft. All views expressed, and any errors and omissions, are the authors' alone.

Recent years have seen substantial reductions in public spending on social care for older people in England. This has not only led to large falls in the number of people over the age of 65 receiving publicly funded social care, but also to growing concern about the potential knock-on effects on other public services, and in particular the National Health Service (NHS). In this paper, we exploit regional variation in the reductions in public funding for social care to examine the impact on Accident and Emergency (A&E) departments in NHS hospitals. We find that reductions in social care spending on people aged 65 and above have led to increased use of A&E services, both in terms of the average number of visits per resident and the number of unique patients visiting A&E each year. We estimate that the average cut to social care spending for the older population over the period (£375) led to an increase of 0.09 visits per resident, compared to a mean of 0.37 visits in 2009. The effects are most pronounced among people aged 85 and above. This has also led to a modest increase in the cost of providing A&E care, increasing A&E costs by an additional £3 per resident for each £100 cut in social care funding.

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ObjectiveTo examine the impact of nursing team size and composition on inpatient hospital mortality.DesignA retrospective longitudinal study using linked nursing staff rostering and patient data. Multilevel conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for patient characteristics, day and time-invariant ward differences estimated the association between inpatient mortality and staffing at the ward-day level. Two staffing measures were constructed: the fraction of target hours worked (fill-rate) and the absolute difference from target hours.SettingThree hospitals within a single National Health Service Trust in England.Participants19 287 ward-day observations with information on 4498 nurses and 66 923 hospital admissions in 53 inpatient hospital wards for acutely ill adult patients for calendar year 2017.Main outcome measureIn-hospital deaths.ResultsA statistically significant association between the fill-rate for registered nurses (RNs) and inpatient mortality (OR 0.9883, 95% CI 0.9773 to 0.9996, p=0.0416) was found only for RNs hospital employees. There was no association for healthcare support workers (HCSWs) or agency workers. On average, an extra 12-hour shift by an RN was associated with a reduction in the odds of a patient death of 9.6% (OR 0.9044, 95% CI 0.8219 to 0.9966, p=0.0416). An additional senior RN (in NHS pay band 7 or 8) had 2.2 times the impact of an additional band 5 RN (fill-rate for bands 7 and 8: OR 0.9760, 95% CI 0.9551 to 0.9973, p=0.0275; band 5: OR 0.9893, 95% CI 0.9771 to 1.0017, p=0.0907).ConclusionsRN staffing and seniority levels were associated with patient mortality. The lack of association for HCSWs and agency nurses indicates they are not effective substitutes for RNs who regularly work on the ward.

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