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AbstractBorrowers' housing equity is an important component of their wealth and a critical determinant of their vulnerability to shocks. In this paper, we create a unique data set that allows us to provide a comprehensive look at the ratio of housing debt to housing values-what we refer to as household leverage-at the micro level. An advantage of our data is that we are able to study the evolution of household leverage over time and across locations in the United States. We find that leverage was at a very low point just prior to the large declines in house prices that began in 2006, but it rose very quickly thereafter, despite reductions in housing debt. As of late 2015, leverage statistics are approaching their pre-crisis levels, as house prices have risen over 30 percent nationally since 2012. We use our borrower-level leverage measures and another unique feature of our data-updated borrower credit scores-to conduct "stress tests": projecting leverage and defaults under various adverse house price scenarios. We find that while the riskiness of the household sector has declined significantly since 2012, it remains vulnerable to very severe declines in house prices.
Credit card minimum payments are designed to ensure that individuals pay down their debt over time, and scheduling minimum automatic repayments helps to avoid forgetting to repay. Yet minimum payments have additional, unintended psychological default effects by drawing attention away from the card balance due. First, once individuals set the minimum automatic repayment as the default, they then neglect to make the occasional larger repayments they made previously. As a result, individuals incur considerably more credit card interest than late payment fees avoided. Using detailed transaction data, the authors show that approximately 8% of all of the interest ever paid is due to this effect. Second, manual credit card payments are lower when individuals are prompted with minimum payment information. Two new interventions to mitigate this effect are tested in an experiment, prompting full repayment and prompting those repaying little to pay more, with large counter effects. Hence, shrouding the minimum payment option for automatic and manual payments and directing attention to the full balance may remedy these unintended effects.
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