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This paper presents a method for forecasting the load for space heating in a single-family house. The forecasting model is built using data from sixteen houses located in Sønderborg, Denmark, combined with local climate measurements and weather forecasts. Every hour the hourly heat load for each house the following two days is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models and the climate inputs used are: ambient temperature, global radiation and wind speed. A computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme is used. The models are optimized to fit the individual characteristics for each house, such as the level of adaptivity and the thermal dynamical response of the building, which is modeled with simple transfer functions. Identification of a model, which is suitable for all the houses, is carried out. The results show that the one-step ahead errors are close to white noise and that practically all correlation to the climate variables are removed. Furthermore, the results show that the forecasting errors mainly are related to: unpredictable high frequency variations in the heat load signal (predominant only for some houses), shifts in resident behavior patterns and uncertainty of the weather forecasts for longer horizons, especially for solar radiation.

Large solar collector fields are very popular in district heating system in Denmark, even though the solar radiation source is not favourable at high latitudes compared to many other regions. Business models for large solar heating plants in Denmark has attracted much attention worldwide. Denmark is not only the biggest country in both total installed capacities and numbers of large solar district heating plants, but also is the first and only country with commercial market-driven solar district heating plants. By the end of 2017, more than 1.3 million m 2 solar district heating plants are in operation in Denmark. Furthermore, more than 70 % of the large solar district heating plants worldwide are constructed in Denmark. Based on the case of Denmark, this study reviews the development of large solar district heating plants in Denmark since 2006. Success factors for Danish experiences was summarized and discussed. Novel design concepts of large solar district heating plants are also addressed to clarify the future development trend. Potential integration of large solar district heating plants with other renewable energy technologies are discussed. This paper can provide references to potential countries that want to exploit the market for solar district heating plants. Policymakers can evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of solar district heating systems in the national energy planning level based on the know-how and experiences from Denmark.

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