Increasing congestion on freeways and problems associated with existing detectors have spawned an interest in new vehicle detection technologies such as video image processing. Existing commercial image processing systems work well in free-¯owing trac, but the systems have diculties with congestion, shadows and lighting transitions. These problems stem from vehicles partially occluding one another and the fact that vehicles appear dierently under various lighting conditions. We are developing a feature-based tracking system for detecting vehicles under these challenging conditions. Instead of tracking entire vehicles, vehicle features are tracked to make the system robust to partial occlusion. The system is fully functional under changing lighting conditions because the most salient features at the given moment are tracked. After the features exit the tracking region, they are grouped into discrete vehicles using a common motion constraint. The groups represent individual vehicle trajectories which can be used to measure traditional trac parameters as well as new metrics suitable for improved automated surveillance. This paper describes the issues associated with feature based tracking, presents the real-time implementation of a prototype system, and the performance of the system on a large data set. #

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An approach is presented for estimating future travel times on a freeway using flow and occupancy data from single-loop detectors and historical travel-time information. Linear regression, with the stepwise-variable-selection method and more advanced tree-based methods, is used. The analysis considers forecasts ranging from a few minutes into the future up to an hour ahead. Leave-a-day-out cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction errors without underestimation. The current traffic state proved to be a good predictor for the near future, up to 20 min, whereas historical data are more informative for longer-range predictions. Tree-based methods and linear regression both performed satisfactorily, showing slightly different qualitative behaviors for each condition examined in this analysis. Unlike preceding works that rely on simulation, real traffic data were used. Although the current implementation uses measured travel times from probe vehicles, the ultimate goal is an autonomous system that relies strictly on detector data. In the course of presenting the prediction system, the manner in which travel times change from day to day was examined, and several metrics to quantify these changes were developed. The metrics can be used as input for travel-time prediction, but they also should be beneficial for other applications, such as calibrating traffic models and planning models.

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