SummaryAbstractSharks and other large predators are scarce on most coral reefs, but studies of their historical ecology provide qualitative evidence that predators were once numerous in these ecosystems. Quantifying density of sharks in the absence of humans (baseline) is, however, hindered by a paucity of pertinent time-series data. Recently researchers have used underwater visual surveys, primarily of limited spatial extent or nonstandard design, to infer negative associations between reef shark abundance and human populations. We analyzed data from 1607 towed-diver surveys (>1 ha transects surveyed by observers towed behind a boat) conducted at 46 reefs in the central-western Pacific Ocean, reefs that included some of the world's most pristine coral reefs. Estimates of shark density from towed-diver surveys were substantially lower (<10%) than published estimates from surveys along small transects (<0.02 ha), which is not consistent with inverted biomass pyramids (predator biomass greater than prey biomass) reported by other researchers for pristine reefs. We examined the relation between the density of reef sharks observed in towed-diver surveys and human population in models that accounted for the influence of oceanic primary productivity, sea surface temperature, reef area, and reef physical complexity. We used these models to estimate the density of sharks in the absence of humans. Densities of gray reef sharks (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos), whitetip reef sharks (Triaenodon obesus), and the group “all reef sharks” increased substantially as human population decreased and as primary productivity and minimum sea surface temperature (or reef area, which was highly correlated with temperature) increased. Simulated baseline densities of reef sharks under the absence of humans were 1.1–2.4/ha for the main Hawaiian Islands, 1.2–2.4/ha for inhabited islands of American Samoa, and 0.9–2.1/ha for inhabited islands in the Mariana Archipelago, which suggests that density of reef sharks has declined to 3–10% of baseline levels in these areas.ResumenLos tiburones y otros depredadores mayores son escasos en la mayoría de los arrecifes de coral, pero estudios de su ecología histórica proporcionan evidencia cualitativa de que los depredadores una vez fueron numerosos en estos ecosistemas. Sin embargo, la cuantificación de la densidad de tiburones en ausencia de humanos (línea de base) es obstaculizada por la falta de datos de series de tiempo pertinentes. Recientemente, los investigadores han utilizado muestreos visuales submarinos, de extensión espacial limitada o de diseño no estándar, para inferir asociaciones negativas entre la abundancia de tiburones de arrecife y las poblaciones humanas. Analizamos datos de 1607 muestreos por remolque de buzos (transectos >1ha muestreados por observadores remolcados por una lancha) realizados en 46 arrecifes en el Océano Pacífico centro-occidental, arrecifes que incluyeron algunos de los más prístinos del mundo. Las estimaciones de densidad de tiburones fue sustancialmente menor (<10%...

Comparable information on the status of natural resources across large geographic and human impact scales provides invaluable context to ecosystem-based management and insights into processes driving differences among areas. Data on fish assemblages at 39 US flag coral reef-areas distributed across the Pacific are presented. Total reef fish biomass varied by more than an order of magnitude: lowest at densely-populated islands and highest on reefs distant from human populations. Remote reefs (<50 people within 100 km) averaged ~4 times the biomass of “all fishes” and 15 times the biomass of piscivores compared to reefs near populated areas. Greatest within-archipelagic differences were found in Hawaiian and Mariana Archipelagos, where differences were consistent with, but likely not exclusively driven by, higher fishing pressure around populated areas. Results highlight the importance of the extremely remote reefs now contained within the system of Pacific Marine National Monuments as ecological reference areas.